芜湖市梅毒流行特征和发病趋势预测  

Epidemiological characteristics and prevalent trend of syphilis in Wuhu ciyt

作　　者：钱帮群[1] 吕金伟[1] 琚腊红[1] 成国明[1] 李永霞 何建刚[1] 

机构地区：[1]芜湖市疾病预防控制中心,安徽芜湖241000 [2]芜湖市弋江区疾病预防控制中心,安徽芜湖241000

出　　处：《安徽预防医学杂志》2012年第3期173-174,197,共3页Anhui Journal of Preventive Medicine

摘　　要：目的分析芜湖市2006～2010年梅毒流行特征及预测2011年和2012年梅毒发病趋势,为梅毒的预防控制提供理论依据。方法利用2006～2010年芜湖市报告的梅毒疫情资料和报告的病例数进行流行病学分析,用指数曲线回归方程进行梅毒发病趋势预测。结果 2006～2010年芜湖市共报告梅毒4921例,其中男性2377例,女性2544例;不同年份间梅毒病例的性别构成差异有统计学意义(χ2=17.20,P<0.01),报告20～49岁梅毒病例数最多。建立预测模型Y^=e3.522+0.136x具有较好拟合度。根据回归方程预测,2011年和2012年芜湖市梅毒发病率是66.82/10万和76.55/10万。结论指数曲线回归方程建立的预测模型对梅毒发病趋势预测具有一定应用价值。Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of syphilis in Wuhu from 2006 to 2010,predict its prevalent trends in 2011 and 2012,and provide a theoretical basis for the prevention and control of syphilis.Methods Epidemiological analysis was used to analyze the data of syphilis reported in Wuhu during 2006-2010.Regression equation with the exponential curve was applied to predict trends in the syphilis epidemic.Results During 2006-2010,a total of 4921 cases of syphilis were reported in Wuhu,of which 2 377 were males and 2 544 were females.There was significant gender difference in annual incidence rates（χ2=17.20,P〈0.01）.Most of the cases belonged to the 20-49 age group.The prediction model（X=e3.522＋0.136x） had good fitting degree.The incidence of syphilis in Wuhu were 66.82/10000 and 76.55/10000 in 2011 and 2012,according to the regression equation.Conclusion sThe prediction model established by regression equation with the exponential curve had a high value of practical application.

关 键 词：梅毒 流行病学 预测 

分 类 号：R51[医药卫生—内科学]