EOF-CCA模型在山东季降水预测中的应用  

The Application of EOF-CCA Model to Seasonal Rainfall Predicton in Shandong Province

作　　者：胡桂芳[1] 张苏平[1] 谢考宪[1] 

机构地区：[1]山东省气象局,济南250031

出　　处：《气象》2000年第7期12-16,共5页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：中国气象局"短平快"项目!"卫星遥感资料在山东旱涝分析;预测中的应用"资助;国家重中之重科技项目! 96 - 90 8- 0 5- 0 6 - 10

摘　　要：首先介绍了 EOF- CCA模型的基本原理及建模步骤 ,阐明了经验正交函数分解(EOF)和典型相关分析 (CCA)两种统计方法在短期气候预测应用中结合的必然性及优越性 ,并指出该模型可由一个气候场或多个气候场去预报另一个气候场。然后以山东 13站的季降水量场为预报场 ,分别以前期整个北半球和东亚区域的 5 0 0 h Pa月平均位势高度场为因子场 ,建立了位势高度场的前 13个主分量场与季降水场之间的EOF- CCA模型 ,最后对模型的拟合、预测效果进行了评估 ,结果表明 :模型对山东的季节性降水有一定的预报技巧 ,可在业务中试验应用。The principle of EOF CCA model and its steps of development were briefly introduced.The inevitability and superiority were illustrated when the two methods EOF and CCA were used in the combination form of EOF CCA in the prediction of short range climatic change.It was also pointed out that with this model another climatic field based on one or more climatic fields could be forecasted.Seasonal precipitation of 13 stations in Shandong province was the forecasted field and previous monthly average geopotential height fields at 500hPa over northern hemisphere and east Asia were used as factor fields.Thus the EOF CCA model was set up.Finally the model′s historical fit and prediction effect were assessed,which shows that the model has rather good ability in forecasting seasonal precipitation and can be used in the operation.

关 键 词：EOF-CCA模型 降水量 季预测 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]