风暴增水随机分析的过阈法及其统计计算模式  

On the Peak over Threshold Method in the Statistical Analysis of Storm Surge Elevation and Its Probability Model

作　　者：董胜[1] 李奉利[2] 孙瑞文 

机构地区：[1]青岛海洋大学工程学院,青岛266003 [2]青岛市建设委员会,青岛266003

出　　处：《青岛海洋大学学报（自然科学版）》2000年第3期542-548,共7页Journal of Ocean University of Qingdao

基　　金：国家"九五"攻关课题!(96-92 2 -0 3 -0 3 );青岛海洋大学青年教师基金!( 50 2 1 2 8)资助

摘　　要：以青岛大港观测站 32年增水过程为例 ,探讨风暴增水工程设计参数的频率分析法 ,进行了不同阈值序列及各种理论线型的分布拟合。首次提出 Poisson- Pearson- III型分布模式 ,并将其用于工程计算 :对比分析 POT法与年极值法的计算结果 ;给出青岛大港站风暴增水多年一遇设计值 ,为进一步科学地确定海岸防潮工程设计水位奠定了基础。By taking the 32 year storm surge elevation at Qingdao Dagang Tidal Station as an example,this paper discusses the probability analysis method for calculating storm design parameters in engineering. Different threshold series and theoretical distributions are applied to fitting the observed data. The Poisson Pearson III type distribution is put forward in engineering design for the first time. The results obtained with the POT method and the annual extreme value method are compared and discussed. The return period values of storm surge elevations are calculated.

关 键 词：风暴增水 随机分析 过阈法 统计计算模型 

分 类 号：P731.23[天文地球—海洋科学] P753[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]