强对流实时短期预报业务应用  

ON THE OPERATIONAL APPLICATION OF REAL-TIME SHORT RANGE FORECAST OF SEVERE CONVECTION

作　　者：胡富泉[1] 郭敏[1] 张家澄[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海中心气象台,上海市200030

出　　处：《高原气象》2000年第3期391-396,共6页Plateau Meteorology

摘　　要：θse特型法是一种强对流天气的短期预报方法 ,它把强对流天气预报化成预报引发背景条件下高能量预警型的强对流大概率事件。 1 995～ 1 998年在上海地区进行强对流实时短期预报 ,准确率达 890/ 0 。se characteristic method is a short range forecast of severe convective weather. It can make severe convective weather forecast into predicting presaging severe convective high probability events under trigger mechanism condition. From 1995 to 1998, the accuracy of real time short range forecast in Shanghai area has reached 89 percents.

关 键 词：θse特型法 强对流天气 短期预报 预警系统 

分 类 号：P457[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P456.1