我国钢铁业产能利用与安全监测：2000～2010年  

Capacity Utilization and the Safety Monitoring of Steel Industry in China from the Year 2000 to 2010

作　　者：韩国高[1] 王立国[2] 

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学数学与数量经济学院辽宁,大连116025 [2]东北财经大学投资工程管理学院辽宁,大连116025

出　　处：《改革》2012年第8期31-41,共11页Reform

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“抑制产能过剩与治理重复建设对策研究”(批准号:09&ZD026)

摘　　要：在预警理论基础上，以我国钢铁行业为例构建工业行业产能利用状况安全监测预警系统．从五个不同侧面选取11个反映钢铁行业运行特征的经济指标．利用3盯原则确定各指标的预警界限．并运用熵值法确定每个指标在预警系统中的权重，进而得到钢铁行业产能利用状况综合指数，在此基础上对2000～2010年我国钢铁行业的产能利用状况进行具体分析。研究结果表明：我国钢铁行业在2005年和2009年进入产能利用显著过剩区间，而其他年份均处于安全区间。针对我国钢铁行业的产能利用安全监测预警状况，应采取监测预警、控制固定投资、总量调控、海外投资等四个方面的有效措施。On the basis of early warning theory, the authors set up the safety monitoring and warning system of the status of industrial capability utilization in the steel industry in China. They select eleven economic indicators which reflect the running characteristics of the steel industry from five different aspects, defining the specific early warning boundaries of indicators with the 3~principle, and giving the weight of each indicator in the early warning system with the method of entropy value, at last, get the steel industry capacity utilization situation composite index. On the basis of it, they have a specific analysis on the capacity utilization status of the steel industry from the year of 2000 to 2010. The results show that the steel industry enters the interval of significantly excessive capacity utilization in the years of 2005 and 2009, while in the interval of safety in other years. According to the analysis, they put forward that measures in four aspects should be taken in safety monitoring, controlling fixed assets investment, gross controlling, and foreign investment, and so on.

关 键 词：第二产业 钢铁业 产能利用 预警指数 

分 类 号：F123.16[经济管理—世界经济]