中国土地交易价格季节性的实证检验  

An Empirical Test on the Seasonality in China's Land Market

作　　者：赵奉军[1] 王先柱[2] 

机构地区：[1]杭州师范大学阿里巴巴商学院,浙江杭州310036 [2]清华大学房地产研究所,北京100084

出　　处：《中国土地科学》2012年第6期73-78,共6页China Land Science

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学重大攻关项目(10JZD0025);教育部2012规划基金项目(12YJA790206);国家自然科学基金项目(41101104)

摘　　要：研究目的:实证检验中国土地交易价格的季节性并分析季节性的根源。研究方法:统计分析法和计量检验。研究结果:(1)中国住宅用地和商业旅游娱乐用地以及工业用地交易价格具有显著的季节性,但季节变动模式并不一致;(2)"8.31大限"带来的市场化土地出让方式并没有改变土地交易价格的季节性。研究结论:工业用地价格与住宅和商业用地价格表现出不同的季节变动模式,货币供应量和住宅价格指数的季节因子显著的领先于土地交易价格的季节因子。The purpose of this paper is to analyze the seasonality feature and its determinants on land prices in China＇s land market according to a statistical method and econometric test. The results show that 1 ） the seasonality of land prices of residential and commercial uses are significant; 2） transaction patterns of market style enforced by government through the so-called ＂83l deadline＂ didn＇t change the seasonality in land markets. It is concluded that the seasonality of land prices between industrial and residential and commercial are different. The seasonal factors of the amount of monetary supply and the housing price are significantly advanced than that of the land prices.

关 键 词：土地经济 土地价格 季节效应 

分 类 号：F301[经济管理—产业经济]