RegCM3模式对中国近10年来气温变化的模拟实验及检验  

Simulation and Preliminary Validation of China’s Temperature in a Decade by RegCM3

作　　者：杜吴鹏[1] 高庆先[2] 师华定[2] 孙丹[3] 房小怡[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京市气象局气候中心,北京100089 [2]中国环境科学研究院,北京100012 [3]中国科学院大气物理研究所中层大气和全球环境探测重点实验室,北京100029

出　　处：《资源科学》2012年第8期1430-1438,共9页Resources Science

基　　金：国家环保公益性行业科研专项(编号:201109065);国家自然科学基金项目(编号:41105103)

摘　　要：利用区域气候模式RegCM3模拟了2000年-2009年全国的气温及其变化,并通过地面气象观测资料对模拟结果进行了初步检验和分析。结果表明:模式总体上能模拟出全国的气温分布、梯度变化以及较为明显的高温中心,对中东部地区的模拟效果优于西部的青藏高原、新疆等地区。代表性气象站点2005年-2009年较2000年-2004年气温变化趋势的观测结果与模拟一致,模式具有一定的区域气候变化模拟能力。利用各区域气象站观测资料对模拟结果进行检验,进一步模拟出气温的年度和季节变化,对东北和华北的模拟效果优于其它地区,但模式对气温的模拟存在系统性偏低现象,特别是北方地区的高温季节、西南-长江流域一线的低温季节气温偏低较为明显。在全球气候变化背景下极端气候事件频繁发生,因此未来对模式模拟性能会有更高要求,在提高模式分辨率、改进模式物理化学机制,以及使用更多的地面观测资料等方面需要进一步深入研究。In recent years, global climate change has become a hot issue concerned and studied by domestic and foreign atmospheric scientists. The change of temperature is the most significant characteristic as well as the most direct consequence of climate change. Extreme weather and climate occurrs more and more frequently in the recent decade, which will have great potential impacts on many regions especially climate-sensitive areas. The research of temperature simulation and validation can help to assess the model applicability systematically as well as can be used as reference for improvment and perfection of the model. The data used in this research come from the simulation results of ten years （2000-2009） obtained by Regional Climate Model and the relevant meteorological observation data from 752 stations. The research methods are mainly mathematical statistics, comparison and analysis as well as correlation validation. In this paper, temperature and its change in the recent decade （2000-2009） in China were first simulated by RegCM3, and then the results were validated preliminarily and analyzed in detail based on meteorological observation data. The results show that the model can simulate the temperature distribution, gradient changes and obvious high temperature centers in general, and the simulation results of central and eastern China are better than western China, such as Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and Sinkiang. The temperature change simulations of 2005-2009 at representative meteorological stations are consistent with those of 2000-2004, which indicates that the model has a certain simulation capability of regional climate change. Further validation shows that the model can simulate the annual and seasonal temperature change as a whole, and the simulation results are better in Northeast China and North China than in other regions. However, there is a phenomenon of systematically low value, especially for high temperature season in northern China and low temperature season in Southwest China and Yangtze Riv

关 键 词：区域气候模式 气温 模拟 检验 

分 类 号：P468.021[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]