中国水资源与经济发展要素的时空匹配分析  

Analysis of the Spatio-Temporal Matching of Water Resource and Economic Development Factors in China

作　　者：张吉辉[1,2] 李健[2,3] 唐燕[2,3] 

机构地区：[1]国家电网公司高级培训中心,北京100049 [2]天津大学管理与经济学部,天津300072 [3]天津理工大学循环经济研究院,天津300384

出　　处：《资源科学》2012年第8期1546-1555,共10页Resources Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(编号:08BJY004);教育部人文社会科学研究项目(编号:11YJA630046);天津市科技计划项目(编号:11ZLZLZT08100)

摘　　要：水资源相对短缺已经成为影响区域社会、经济和生态可持续发展的重要因素。本文以2004年-2009年我国31个省市水资源分布、水资源配置相关数据为基础,计算各地区水资源与人口、面积、GDP等经济发展要素的基尼系数,对我国水资源分布、配置与经济发展要素匹配关系的时间演变规律进行研究。结果表明:我国水资源分布与人口、GDP的匹配关系处于波动均衡状态,而与土地面积之间处于极不匹配状态;水资源配置与GDP、人口、土地面积分别表现为比较匹配、不匹配和极不匹配关系,且不匹配程度有缓慢加剧的趋势。另一方面,按照空间维度分析需要,将全国划分为七大地区,并以2009年为例,计算了各地区水资源-经济发展要素的不平衡指数,借此阐释水资源分布、配置与经济发展要素在空间维度上的协调规律,找出主要影响地区。最后,提出了相应的调整措施,以期为缓解区域水资源短缺、调节水资源分布和配置的失衡提供依据。With the rapid economic development, relative shortage of water resources has become a vital factor that impacts sustainable development of regional society, economy and ecology in China. Previous studies primarily focus on water distribution and allocation methods and lay too much importance on economy, thus neglecting the balance between water resource and other economic development factors such as people and regional area. In this paper, based on relevant data of water distribution and allocation during 2004-2009 from 31 provinces, Gini coefficients of three economic development factors including population, area and GDP in China were computed, and temporal evolution discipline of matching between water resource and economic development factors was examined in detail. The results indicate that the Gini coefficient of water resource distribution versus population and GDP takes a low value, showing a high matching degree for them; the Gini coefficient of water resource distribution versus land area takes a relatively high value, showing a mismatch relation for them; the Gini coefficient of water allocation versus GDP, population and land area separately takes a relatively low value, a middle value and a relatively high value, showing correspondingly high match, mismatch and extreme mismatch relation; the Gini coefficients of water distribution and allocation versus economic development factors increase slowly, meaning that the matching degree of them are becoming lower. As for spatial distribution characteristics, China was divided into seven regions in this paper according to geographic location, and the imbalance indexes of water distribution and allocation versus the three economic development factors in 2009 for the partition regions were calculated. The results show that the imbalance indexes of water distribution versus population, GDP and land area in Southern China, Northwest and Southwest regions as well as those of water allocation versus population, GDP and water endowment in Central China, Southern C

关 键 词：水资源 经济发展要素 基尼系数 不平衡指数 时空匹配 中国 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济] TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]