中国稻飞虱发生面积与大气环流特征指数的关系  

Relationship between Rice Planthopper Occurrence Area in China and Atmospheric Circulation Indices

作　　者：季璐[1] 朱敏[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国计量学院生命科学学院,浙江杭州310018

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2012年第25期12526-12529,共4页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：公益性行业(农业)科研专项(200903051)

摘　　要：[目的]建立稻飞虱发生面积的预测模型,从大气环流的角度对每年的发生面积进行预测,指导稻飞虱的防治工作。[方法]分析历年的大气环流特征量的资料,选取与中国稻飞虱发生面积显著相关的大气环流因子,采用逐步回归法,建立预测模型。[结果]筛选出了与稻飞虱发生面积呈显著相关的因子,并分别建立了基于当年10月大西洋欧洲环流型W、当年10月太平洋区极涡面积指数、当年8月北美副高强度指数、当年6月大西洋欧洲环流型W、当年2月北美大西洋副高北界、当年10月大西洋欧洲区极涡强度指数和上年11月亚洲区极涡强度指数的白背飞虱发生面积预测模型和基于当年7月东太平洋副高强度指数、上年10月北半球极涡面积指数、上年11月亚洲区极涡强度指数、当年9月北美大西洋副高北界、当年1月北非大西洋北美副高北界、上年9月太阳黑子和当年9月东太平洋副高面积指数的褐飞虱发生面积预测模型。[结论]通过逐步回归法建立的基于大气环流因子的模型拟合效果较好,可用于实际预测。[Objective] This study aimed to establish a model based on the atmospheric circulation indices for forecasting the area attacked by rice plantopper every year,and to provide guide for controlling plantopper.[Method] The data related to rice planhopper occurrence and atmospheric circulation were collected and analyzed with the method of stepwise regression to establish the prediction model.[Result] The factors significantly related to the area attacked by rice plantopper were selected.Two prediction models were established.One was for white-backed planthopper Horvath,based on Atlantic-European circulation pattern W in October of that year,Pacific polar vortex area index in October of that year,North America subtropical high index in August of that year,Atlantic-European circulation pattern W in June of that year,northern margin of North America subtropical high in February of that year,Atlantic-Europe polar vortex intensity index in October of that year and Asia polar vortex intensity index in November of the last yea;the other prediction model was for brown rice planthopper,based on the East Pacific subtropical high intensity index in July of that year,northern hemisphere polar vortex area index in October of the last year,Asia polar vortex strength index in November of the last year,north margin of North American-Atlantic subtropical high in September of that year,north margin of North Africa-Atlantic-North America subtropical high in January of that year,sunspot in September last year and eastern Pacific subtropical high area index in September of that year.[Conclusion] With the stepwise regression,the forecasting equation of the rice planthopper occurrence established based on the atmospheric circulation indices could be used for the actual forecast.

关 键 词：稻飞虱 大气环流 预测模型 

分 类 号：S433.4[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]