观音山勘探区煤层含气量灰色关联预测  

Grey relational prediction of coalbed methane content in Guanyinshan exploration district

作　　者：王盼盼[1] 秦勇[1] 高弟[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学资源与地球科学学院,煤层气资源与成藏过程教育部重点实验室,江苏徐州221116

出　　处：《煤田地质与勘探》2012年第4期34-38,共5页Coal Geology & Exploration

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(40730422);国家科技重大专项项目(2011ZX05034)

摘　　要：煤层含气量受多种地质因素影响,往往难以准确预测。以云南观音山勘探区为例,利用灰色关联度法识别出影响煤层含气量的主要因素,先后建立了煤层含气量预测的GM(1,N)模型和GM(1,1)模型。进一步分析揭示,煤层埋藏深度、煤层顶板5 m内砂岩厚度和顶板岩性是影响观音山勘探区煤层含气量的3个关键因素,利用残差尾段序列建立的GM(1,1)模型具有较高的预测精度。Gas content,one of the key indicators used to measure CBM-reservoiring effect,controlled by a variety of geological factors,is often difficult to predict.Taking the Guanyinshan exploration district as a case,the authors identified the main geological controlling factors of CBM content with the gray degree related method,and established GM（1,N） and GM（1,1） models for the gas content prediction in succession in the paper.Further analysis revealed that the burial depth of coal seams,sandstone thickness within 5 meters of roof and roof lithology are key to gas content in the exploration district,and that the GM（1,1） model established from the residual empennage sequence has higher prediction accuracy.

关 键 词：煤层含气量 预测 灰色关联 GM(1 N)模型 

分 类 号：P628.1[天文地球—地质矿产勘探] P618.13[天文地球—地质学]