从气候变化的新视角理解灾害风险、暴露度、脆弱性和恢复力  

Climate Change:New Dimensions in Disaster Risk,Exposure,Vulnerability,and Resilience

作　　者：郑菲[1,2] 孙诚[1,2] 李建平[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室,北京100029 [2]中国科学院研究生院,北京100049

出　　处：《气候变化研究进展》2012年第2期79-83,共5页Climate Change Research

基　　金：国家973计划项目(2010CB950400);中国科学院战略性先导科技专项子课题(XDA05090403);中国气象局IPCC报告作者资助项目

摘　　要：不断变化的气候可导致前所未有的极端天气和气候事件。这些事件能否构成灾害,在很大程度上取决于脆弱性和暴露度水平。虽然无法完全消除各种灾害风险,但灾害风险管理和气候变化适应的重点是减少脆弱性和暴露度,并提高对各种潜在极端事件不利影响的恢复力,从而促进社会和经济的可持续发展。全面的灾害风险管理要求更加合理地分配对减灾、灾害管理等方面所付出的努力。过去的主流是强调灾害管理,但目前减灾成为关注焦点和挑战。这种主动积极的灾害风险管理与适应有助于避免未来的风险和灾害,而不仅仅是减少已有的风险和灾害,同时这也是灾害风险管理和气候变化适应更加紧密联系的一个背景。灾害风险管理促进气候变化适应从应对当前的影响中汲取经验,而气候变化适应帮助灾害风险管理更加有效地应对未来变化的条件。A Changing climate can result in unprecedented extreme weather and climate events. The possibility of these events leading to disasters depends strongly on the level of vulnerability and exposure. Although risks cannot fully be eliminated, both disaster risk management and adaption to climate change focus on reducing vulnerability and exposure, as well as increasing resilience to the potential adverse impacts of extreme events, thus promoting sustainability in social and economic development. A more comprehensive disaster risk management raises challenges for the proper allocation of efforts among disaster risk reduction, disaster management, and so on. Disaster risk reduction becomes emphasis of concern currently as opposed to mainstream historical disaster management. This prospective disaster risk management and adaption can contribute to avoiding future, and not just reducing existing risk and disaster, and provide a background for closer integration of disaster risk management and adaption to climate change. Disaster risk management can help those practicing adaption to climate change to learn from addressing current impacts, and adaption to climate change can help those practicing disaster risk management to more effectively address future conditions that will differ from those of today.

关 键 词：气候变化 极端事件 灾害风险 暴露度 脆弱性 恢复力 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]