Integration of a statistical emulator approach with the SCE-UA method for parameter optimization of a hydrological model  

作　　者：SONG XiaoMeng ZHAN CheSheng XIA Jun 

机构地区：[1]Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute,Nanjing 210029,China [2]Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China,' [3]State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China

出　　处：《Chinese Science Bulletin》2012年第26期3397-3403,共7页

基　　金：supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(40901023);the National Basic Research Program of China (2010CB428403)

摘　　要：Parameter optimization of a hydrological model is an indispensable process within model development and application.The lack of knowledge regarding the efficient optimization of model parameters often results in a bottle-neck within the modeling process,resulting in the effective calibration and validation of distributed hydrological models being more difficult to achieve.The classical approaches to global parameter optimization are usually characterized by being time consuming,and having a high computation cost.For this reason,an integrated approach coupling a meta-modeling approach with the SCE-UA method was proposed,and applied within this study to optimize hydrological model parameter estimation.Meta-modeling was used to determine the optimization range for all parameters,following which the SCE-UA method was applied to achieve global parameter optimization.The multivariate regression adaptive splines method was used to construct the response surface as a surrogate model to a complex hydrological model.In this study,the daily distributed time-variant gain model(DTVGM) applied to the Huaihe River Basin,China,was chosen as a case study.The integrated objective function based on the water balance coefficient and the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient was used to evaluate the model performance.The case study shows that the integrated method can efficiently complete the multi-parameter optimization process,and also demonstrates that the method is a powerful tool for efficient parameter optimization.Parameter optimization of a hydrological model is an indispensable process within model development and application. The lack of knowledge regarding the efficient optimization of model parameters often results in a bottle-neck within the modeling process, resulting in the effective calibration and validation of distributed hydrological models being more difficult to achieve. The classi- cal approaches to global parameter optimization are usually characterized by being time consuming, and having a high computa- tion cost. For this reason, an integrated approach coupling a meta-modeling approach with the SCE-UA method was proposed, and applied within this study to optimize hydrological model parameter estimation. Meta-modeling was used to determine the optimization range for all parameters, following which the SCE-UA method was applied to achieve global parameter optimization The multivariate regression adaptive splines method was used to construct the response surface as a surrogate model to a complex hydrological model. In this study, the daily distributed time-variant gain model （DTVGM） applied to the Huaihe River Basin, China, was chosen as a case study. The integrated objective function based on the water balance coefficient and the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient was used to evaluate the model performance. The case the multi-parameter optimization process, and also demonstrates mization. study shows that the integrated method can efficiently complete that the method is a powerful tool for efficient parameter opti-

关 键 词：分布式水文模型 参数优化方法 模拟器 整合 统计 多参数优化 模型开发 建模过程 

分 类 号：P334.92[天文地球—水文科学]