基于SPSS软件的浦东新区长江引水量分析和预测  

Analysis and Prediction of Water Diversion from the Yangtze River in the Pudong New District Based on SPSS

作　　者：杨晓斌[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海市浦东新区水文水资源管理署,上海200129

出　　处：《南水北调与水利科技》2012年第4期70-72,120,共4页South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology

摘　　要：浦东新区地处长江出口,每年通过沿江水闸引入大量长江优质水,服务于新区社会工农业发展。使用SPSS软件正态检验、方差分析和季节性分析等功能,对2006年-2011年浦东新区长江引水量数据进行分析,研究近年引水量的变化特征。运用专家建模器建立预测模型,使用该模型模拟2006年-2011年数据,比较拟合值和实测值,使模型可靠、可行。最后利用模型预测2012年-2015年每月引水量数据,为更好开发利用长江水资源提供依据。The Pudong New District is located in the outlet of the Yangtze River.The Yangtze River discharges a large number of high-quality water to the Pudong New District through the intake gate every year,which benefits the industrial and agricultural development in the district.Based on the normality test,analysis of variance,and seasonal analysis and other functions embedded in the SPSS software,the water diversion amount and its variation characteristics from the Yangtze River were analyzed from 2006 to 2011 in the Pudong New District.Moreover,the Expert Modeler was used to build the prediction model,which was used to simulate the water diversion amount from 2006 to 2011;therefore the simulated values were compared with the measured values.The results showed that the evaluation model is reliable and feasible.The model was then used to predict the monthly water diversion amount from 2012 to 2015,which can provide references for a better development and utilization of water resources in the Yangtze River.

关 键 词：SPSS 正态分布 方差分析 季节性 预测 

分 类 号：TV214[水利工程—水文学及水资源] P343.5[天文地球—水文科学]