中国2030年能源发展预测与对策研究  

Prediction of energy development in 2030 year in China and its countermeasure

作　　者：韩振宇 梁鹏[2] 刘晓宇[3] 苏艺[2] 韩国刚[2] 陈忱[3] 杜蕴慧[2] 蔡梅[2] 戴文楠[2] 

机构地区：[1]博奇电力公司,北京100022 [2]环境保护部环境工程评估中心,北京100012 [3]中国环境科学研究院,北京100012

出　　处：《电力科技与环保》2012年第4期11-13,共3页Electric Power Technology and Environmental Protection

摘　　要：在回顾2000年-2010年中国能源消费的基础上,对中国2030年能源发展及耗煤量进行了预测,预测结果表明,2030年中国能耗总量将控制在55～60亿t标煤,耗煤量控制在40～45亿t标煤。建议中国2011年-2015年、2015年-2020年、2020年-2025年和2025年-2030年能源弹性系数分别为0.5、0.5、0.4和0.3。开展煤炭休养生息战略,多进口煤炭。The energy development and coal consumption in China in 2030 year are predocated based on the review of energy consumption during 2000 -2010 year in China. It indicates the total energy consumption in China in 2030 year should be controlled at 5 and half billion tons standard coal to 6 billion tons standard coal,the coal consumption amount should be controlled between 4 billion tons standard coal to 4 and half million tons standard coal. It suggests,during the period of 2011 year to 2015 year,2015 year to 2020 year,2020 year to 2025 year and 2025 year -2030 year,the energy elasticity coefficient should be controlled at 0.5,0.5,0.4 and 0.3 respectively in China,and development coal recuperate strategy at the same time.

关 键 词：能源消耗 弹性系数 能源发展 预测 

分 类 号：X32[环境科学与工程—环境工程]