美元汇率对美国进出口商品价格传递率的实证分析  

An Empirical Study on U.S.Dollar Exchange Rate Pass-through to Import and Export Commodity′s Prices of U.S.

作　　者：刘少英[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行杭州中心支行金融研究处

出　　处：《世界经济研究》2012年第8期22-27,87,共6页World Economy Studies

摘　　要：本文实证分析了美元汇率按美国总进出口价格、分段进出口价格、分类商品进出口价格的传递率。实证结果表明,无论美元升值还是贬值,美国的进出口价格指数都会下降,而且美国出口价格的传递率比同期进口价格的传递率要小得多,升值期的传递率也比贬值期的传递率要小;美元升值比贬值对美国经常账户赤字的纠正更有利。因此,建议美国实行美元适度升值的政策,而且要结合其他政策才能改善其巨额经常账户赤字。This paper studies U.S.dollar exchange rate pass-through to import and export commodities′ prices of U.S.according to their general prices,prices in different periods and prices of items.The empirical results show that import and export price index fall whether U.S.dollar depreciates or appreciates,and the pass-through rate of export price is much smaller than that of import price,the pass-through rate in appreciating period is smaller than that in depreciating period.U.S.dollar appreciation is more favorable for correction of the current account than depreciation.Therefore,it is suggested that by adopting appropriate appreciation of U.S.dollar and combining with other policies,U.S administration could improve a large amount of current account deficit.

关 键 词：美元汇率 进出口商品价格 传递率 

分 类 号：F837.12[经济管理—金融学] F757.12F224