中国货币政策的工具规则和目标规则--“多工具，多目标”背景下的一个比较实证研究  

China’s Instrument Rules and Targeting Rules of Monetary Policy:A Comparative Empirical Study in the Context of“Multi-tool,Multi-objective”

作　　者：郭红兵[1] 陈平[2] 

机构地区：[1]广东商学院金融学院,广东广州510320 [2]中山大学岭南学院,广东广州510275

出　　处：《金融研究》2012年第8期29-43,共15页Journal of Financial Research

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目(11JZD022);国家自然科学基金项目(71173091);国家社会科学基金项目(11CJL018)的资助;“资本市场与投融资研究创新团队”的项目资助

摘　　要：我国货币政策面临"多工具,多目标"的现实状况,有鉴于此,本文基于一个广义前瞻性反应函数模型并利用我国1994Q1～2011Q4的宏观经济数据实证比较了五个不同的货币政策工具规则,每个工具规则都隐含四大政策目标。实证结果表明,五个规则都面临"顾此失彼"的困境;市场利率规则表现最好却具有内在不稳定性。因此,在"多工具,多目标"背景下,我国央行不宜采用单一的货币政策规则。本文提出了相应的政策建议。China＇s monetary policy has been facing the reality of ＂multi-tool, multi-objective＂. For this reason, this paper compares the five different instrument rules of monetary policy empirically based on a generalized for- ward-looking reaction function model using of China＇s macro-data of 1994Q1-2011Q4. Each instrument rule im- plicit the four famous policy objectives. The empirical results show that the five rules are all facing a dilemma of ＂trade-off＂ and that the market interest rate rule is the best but are not stable inherently. Thus, in the ＂multi- tool, multi- objective＂ context, China＇s central bank should not adopt a single monetary policy rules. Finally, this paper proposes the corresponding policy recommendations.

关 键 词：货币政策规则 工具规则 目标规则 

分 类 号：F822.0[经济管理—财政学] F224