强震巨灾后受伤人数的估计方法研究  

Estimation of the number of casualties in catastrophic earthquake

作　　者：刘爱兵[1] 郑静晨[1] 刘晓军[1] 张金红[1] 曲国胜[2] 宁宝坤[2] 刘庆[1] 张庆江[1] 李向晖[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民武装警察部队武警总医院,北京100039 [2]中国地震应急搜救中心

出　　处：《中国急救复苏与灾害医学杂志》2012年第8期706-708,776,共4页China Journal of Emergency Resuscitation and Disaster Medicine

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目（70973139）

摘　　要：目的探讨强震巨灾后早期估算受伤人数的方法，为灾难应急准备奠定科学依据。方法选取10个亚洲强震巨灾震例伤亡人员数据和中国汶川地震各地区伤亡人员数据，统计伤亡比。结果10个震例伤亡比变异较大，最低0．80，最大8．31，平均3．70。中国汶川地震各地伤亡比变异也很较大，最低1．00、最大254．4，平均3．67，两组伤亡比均值近似，均约为4：1。结论以多个震例的伤亡比均值作为预测参数，可建立线性函数关系式：N=K×M。此函数模型需要进一步研究区域系数和受伤程度等参数。Objective To explore the evaluation model of the total number of injuries after catastrophic earthquake and lay the scientific basis for disaster emergency preparation. Methods The numbers of deaths and injuries in the 10 catastrophic earthquake cases in Asia and those in different areas in the Wenchuan earthquake case in China were selected to analyze the mean wounded/death ratios. Results The wounded/death ratios in different earthquake cases were highly variable, with the lowest ratio of 0.80, the highest ratio of 8.3, and the mean of 3.70. Similarly, the wounded/death ratios in different areas in the Wenehuan earthquake case was highly variable too, with the lowest ratio of 1.00, the highest ratio of 254.4, and the mean of 3.67. However, the mean wounded/death ratio of the group of foreign Asian countries was similar to that of the Wenchuan earthquake, both being 4：1. Conclusion A linear function equation for estimating the number of casualties, namely N=K×M, has been established based on the mean wounded/death ratio. However, the parameters, such as region factor and trauma degree, remain to be studied so as to correct the equation.

关 键 词：地震 受伤人数 估算模型 

分 类 号：R129[医药卫生—环境卫生学]