湖北省城市土地集约利用与社会经济因素的计量分析  

Econometric Analysis of Urban Land Intensive Use and Socio-Economic Factors in Hubei Province

作　　者：徐小伟[1,2] 陈银蓉[1,2] 陈昱[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]华中农业大学土地管理学院,湖北武汉430070 [2]华中农业大学湖北农村发展研究中心,湖北武汉430070

出　　处：《国土资源科技管理》2012年第4期53-59,共7页Scientific and Technological Management of Land and Resources

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(70473029);国家社会科学基金(09BZZ024)

摘　　要：在测度2001—2009年湖北省城市土地集约利用水平的基础上,选取经济发展、人口增长和城市化率为社会经济因素,采用计量经济模型分析城市土地集约利用与社会经济因素的相互作用。结果表明:城市集约利用水平与经济发展、人口增长和城市化均为一阶单整序列;经济发展、人口增长、城市化和城市土地集约利用之间存在单项因果关系;城市土地集约度与社会经济因素之间存在长期的稳定关系,短期波动向长期均衡趋近的调整幅度达到68.36%。因而,政府应采取长期和短期结合的策略,加大城市建设的投入,加强土地利用管理,提高城市土地集约利用水平,使经济和城市化有序发展。Based on the measurement of the urban land intensive utilization of Hubei Province during 2001 to 2009, using economic development, population increase and urbanization level as socio-economic factors, this paper employs the method of econometrics model to analyze the interaction between urban land intensive utilization and socio-economic factors. The results show that urban land intensive utilization, economic development, population increase and urbanization level are of the first- order sequence, that there is a single causal relation between the economic development, population increase and urbanization level and the urban land intensive utilization, and that there is a long-term stable relationship between the urban land intensive utilization and socio-economic factors, the range of short term equilibrium close to long term equilibrium being 68. 36%. Therefore, it is necessary for the government to take both short-term and long-term measures, such as increasing urban construction cost, strengthening management for land utilization, improving the urban land intensive utilization, to make the gross regional product and urbanization develop constantly

关 键 词：土地集约利用 协整检验 GRANGER检验 误差修正模型 湖北省 

分 类 号：F301.24[经济管理—产业经济]