预期寿命与中国家庭储蓄  

Life Expectancy and Household Saving in China

作　　者：刘生龙[1] 胡鞍钢[2] 郎晓娟[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所,邮政编码100732 [2]清华大学国情研究中心,邮政编码100084

出　　处：《经济研究》2012年第8期107-117,共11页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：中国社会科学院青年启动基金项目"人口老龄化的增长效应与储蓄效应"和中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所重点项目"中国储蓄之谜--基于生产性因素与人口结构研究"的资助

摘　　要：在生命周期模型的基础之上,本文引入预期寿命,验证预期寿命对中国家庭储蓄率的影响。通过收集中国1990—2009年31个省份的省级面板数据,本文的实证研究结果表明人口预期寿命对中国家庭储蓄率产生了显著的正向影响,样本期间内由人口平均预期寿命增加导致的中国家庭储蓄率增加了共计4.2个百分点,对中国家庭储蓄率增长的贡献度达到了42.9%。本文的实证研究结果还表明预期未来的收入增长率对家庭储蓄率产生微弱的负面影响,而预期未来的收入不确定以及人口扶养比对中国家庭储蓄率的影响没有通过显著性检验。Based on the life cycle model, this paper introduces average life expectancy, to test on the impact of life expectancy on China＇s household saving rate. Through collecting a provincial panel data of China＇s 31provinces during 1990-2009, the result of the empirical studies indicates that the life expectancy had significant positive impacts on household saving rate in China. In the sample period, of the growth rate of China＇s household saving rate, there were 4. 2 percentage points resulted from the increase of the life expectancy, contributing to 42.9% of the total growth rate of the household of the saving rate. The results of empirical study of this paper also indicates that the expected future income growth rate had weak negative effects on household saving rate, and the impacts of expected future income uncertainty and population dependency ratio can not pass the significant test.

关 键 词：预期寿命 家庭储蓄率 生命周期模型 预期收入增长率 预期收入不确定 

分 类 号：F832.22[经济管理—金融学]