基于VAR模型和格兰杰检验的山东省旅游业与经济发展的关系研究  

An Empirical Study on the Relationship between the Tourism and Economic Development of Shandong

作　　者：张占涛[1] 宋廷山[1] 张记高 

机构地区：[1]齐鲁师范学院经济系,山东济南250200 [2]山东省旅游局,山东济南250014

出　　处：《齐鲁师范学院学报》2012年第4期76-81,共6页Journal of Qilu Normal University

摘　　要：2000年以来,山东省旅游业取得长足发展,2010年实现旅游总收入3058.8亿元,是2000年的7倍,相当于当年国内生产总值的7.76%。旅游业的迅猛发展不仅为社会带来大量就业岗位,更成为全省经济又好又快发展的重要支撑。在分析山东省旅游与经济发展现状的基础上,通过建立计量经济模型,实证研究山东省旅游业发展与经济发展之间存在的关系,利用脉冲响应函数,探求两者之间的交互响应作用的方向及大小,并进一步确定其统计学意义上的因果关系,从而针对性地提出相应对策建议,为政府提供决策支持。Since 2000, the tourism has made great development in Shandong province. In 2010, the total tourist income reached RMB305.88 billion, which was 7 times of that in 2000 and was 7.81% of GDP. The rapid development of tourism not only brings a lot of jobs for the society, but also provides the important support to the rapid development of provincial economy. By establishing econometric model, this article researches whether there is the long - term stable causality between tourism development and economic development on the basis of the empirical study. It also takes advantage of impulse response function to seek the direction and size of interaction response between tourism development and economic development and provides decision support for the government.

关 键 词：山东旅游业 经济发展 脉冲响应函数 格兰杰因果 关系研究 

分 类 号：F590[经济管理—旅游管理]