网络舆情事件的系统动力学模型与仿真  

System Dynamics Modeling and Simulation of Internet Public Opinions Events

作　　者：狄国强[1,2] 曾华艺[1,2] 勒中坚[1,2] 丁菊玲[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]江西财经大学信息管理学院,南昌330013 [2]江西省电子商务工程技术研究中心,南昌330013

出　　处：《情报杂志》2012年第8期12-20,共9页Journal of Intelligence

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"面向网络舆情危机预警的观点柔性挖掘方法研究"(编号:09BTQ034)阶段性成果

摘　　要：分析网络舆情事件的热度,研究网络舆情危机的形成机制,构建网络舆情危机预警的系统动力学模型。采用Vensim PLE软件对模型仿真,验证并分析模型的有效性和灵敏度,仿真结果表明该模型能够较好地拟合网络舆情事件中热度的形成过程。分析事件作用、网民作用、媒体作用和政府作用等四方面对网络舆情热度的影响,给出了网络舆情危机预警策略与对策建议。In this paper, we analyze the heat degree on Intemet public opinion events and the formation and development of Intemet public opinions crisis. The Intemet public opinion crisis early warning system dynamics model is constructed. Using Vensim PLE software, we then stimulate the model and take the effectiveness and the sensitivity analysis. The results show that the simulation model can well fit the forming of Intemet public opinion heat on Intemet public opinion events. The model presents the impact Of events force, netizen force, media force and government force to the Intemet public opinion heat. ion crisis early warning strategy are put forward. Finally, suggestions and countermeasures to the Intemet public opinion crisis early warning strategy are put forward.

关 键 词：网络舆情事件 网络舆情危机舆情热度危机预警 系统动力学模型仿真 

分 类 号：G350[文化科学—情报学] TP391[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]