耕地资源与经济增长相关性实证研究——基于省域面板数据  

Empirical Research on the Correlation between Arable Land and Economic Growth——On the Basis of Provincial Panel Data

作　　者：刘卫柏[1,2] 李中[1,2] 洪振华[2] 

机构地区：[1]湖南省区域经济研究中心,湖南邵阳422000 [2]邵阳学院,湖南邵阳422000

出　　处：《系统工程》2012年第6期100-104,共5页Systems Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71172100);湖南省社科基金资助项目(09YBB362);湖南省教育厅优秀青年项目(11B114)

摘　　要：城市化进程中我国耕地非农化现象日益加剧,这在推动经济增长的同时也可能影响粮食安全与生态环境。从可持续发展观点出发,力图揭示耕地资源变化与经济增长的一般化规律。利用我国2001～2010年省域面板数据建构耕地资源与经济增长之间的经济计量模型,验证和分析其存在的相互关系。研究结果表明:第一,从长期看我国东、中、西部地区的耕地资源都可以促进经济增长,并且通过误差修正调整,可以维持经济增长与耕地资源的稳定均衡关系。第二,短期内我国三大区域耕地资源与经济增长二者之间存在双向因果关系;从长期考虑,东、中部地区耕地资源与经济增长二者之间存在单向因果关系,而在西部地区耕地资源与经济增长二者之间存在双向因果关系。Non-agriculturalization of the arable land in our country has been increasing in the process of urbanization, which may affect food security and ecological environment while promoting economic growth. Starting from the perspective of sustainable development, this paper first tries to reveal the general law between the change in the arable land resources and economic growth; Then based on the provincial panel data from 2001 to 2010 in China, the econometric models of relationship between arable land and economic growth have been constructed, analyzing and testing that the resource of arable land is ckosely related to economic growth. The research has shown that： （1） in the first place, in the long run, the resource of arable land in the eastern, central, western areas of China can promote economic growth; （2） through the mechanism of error correction, it can maintain the stable equilibrium relationship between the arable land resource and economic growth; and （3） in the short period of time, there exists two-way causal relationship between the two factors.. arable land and economic growth in China＇ s three above-mentioned major regions, whereas taken into long-term consideration, there exists one-way causal relationship between them in the eastern and central regions of China, however, two-way causal relationship exists between arable land and economic growth in the western regions of China.

关 键 词：耕地资源 经济增长 面板数据 

分 类 号：F301[经济管理—产业经济]