通货膨胀与消费需求——基于省级面板数据的实证研究  

Inflation and Consumption in China:An Empirical Research Based on Provincial Panel Data

作　　者：杨继东[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学经济学院

出　　处：《财贸经济》2012年第8期129-136,共8页Finance & Trade Economics

基　　金：杨瑞龙教授主持的国家社会科学基金重大项目"内需可持续增长的结构性基础与宏观经济政策研究"(项目号:09﹠ZD019)的阶段性研究成果

摘　　要：认识通货膨胀对消费的影响对于理解中国扩大内需的政策有重要意义。本文通过建立一个分省面板数据的回归模型,系统考察了通货膨胀对消费的影响。结果发现,通货膨胀与最终消费率负相关,通货膨胀抑制了最终消费在GDP中的占比;从通胀对消费结构的影响看,通货膨胀降低了农村消费和耐用品消费在最终消费中的占比;通货膨胀并没有显著提高总体名义消费水平的增长,但高通胀有利于城市名义消费水平的增长。从刺激消费的角度而言,控通胀的政策有利于稳定消费,从而稳定经济增长。Understanding of the impact of inflation on consumption is very important for policy maker to make policy of expanding domestic demand, Through provincial panel data regression model, this paper examines the impact of inflation on consumption. The results show that there is a negative relationship between inflation and consumption rate. Inflation has inhibited the ratio of final consumption to GDP and reduced rural consumption and durable goods consumption. Inflation cannot significantly improve the overall nominal consumption growth, but high inflation is conducive to the growth of urban consumption. In order to stabilize consumption and economic growth, policy maker should control high inflation.

关 键 词：通货膨胀 消费 扩大内需 

分 类 号：F822.5[经济管理—财政学] F126.1F224