应用Delphi法构建区域性大型活动卫生保障二次供水风险评价指标体系  

Application of Delphi method for establishing risk evaluation indicators for secondary water supply health security during big events

作　　者：蔡军[1] 谈立峰[1] 冯国柱[1] 

机构地区：[1]江苏省常州市卫生监督所,213003

出　　处：《中国公共卫生管理》2012年第4期414-416,共3页Chinese Journal of Public Health Management

基　　金：常州市科技局资助项目(CS20109006);常州市卫生局资助重大科技项目(ZD2010015)

摘　　要：目的探讨建立区域性大型活动卫生二次供水风险评价指标体系,为开展区域性大型活动二次供水卫生保障工作提供科学依据。方法选择30名专家进行两轮Delphi专家咨询,根据指标重要性赋值得分,确定二次供水风险评价的指标及其权重。结果 30名咨询专家的平均工龄为20.63±5.80年,两轮的应答率均为100%,权威系数分别为0.86±0.06、0.89±0.06,Kendall协调系数分别为0.761(χ2=292.348,P<0.01),0.906(χ2=363.588,P<0.01),经卡方检验均具有统计学意义;确定了二次供水风险评价指标一级指标3项、二级指标10项,以及各项指标的权重,其中一级指标卫生管理、设施管理、水质管理的平均权重分别为2.02、3.94、4.04。结论 Delphi专家咨询法是构建区域性大型活动卫生保障二次供水风险评价指标体系的有效方法,并将为进一步建立风险评价方法奠定基础。Objective To discuss the establishment of the risk evaluation indicators for the secondary water supply health security during the territorial good-sized activities in order to offer scientific bases for the security public health of the territorial big events.Methods A two-round Delphi consultation was held to choose suitable indicators of the risk evaluation of the secondary water supply health security during the territorial good-sized activities among thirty experts.The suitable indicators were selected according to the importance recognized by the experts.Results The average length of service of the thirty experts was（20.63±5.80）years.And the response rates of the two-round consultation from the experts were both 100%,the average coefficient of experts,authorities were 0.86±0.06,0.89±0.06.And Kendall,s coefficient were 0.761,χ2=292.348,P0.01）,0.906（χ2=363.588,P0.01）,and opinions among experts became consistent.Three first-class indicators and ten second-class indicators for risk evaluating the secondary water supply health security,which could seriously influence the territorial good-sized activities,were identified.And the weigh of the indicators was established.Thereinto,three first-class indicators and ten second-class indicators for the secondary water supply were identified.Moreover,the average weigh of hygiene management,installation management and water quality management were 2.02,3.94,4.04,respectively.Conclusion Delphi method is an effective method to establish the risk evaluation indicators for the secondary water supply health security during the territorial good-sized activities.Furthermore,it will lay the foundation of the establishment of the risk evaluation model for the secondary water supply health security during the territorial good-sized activities.

关 键 词：DELPHI法 区域性大型活动 卫生保障 二次供水 风险评价指标 

分 类 号：R123.1[医药卫生—环境卫生学]