基于BN的武器装备体系能力重要度分析  

Capability weightiness degree analysis of weaponry system-of-systems based on BN theory

作　　者：鲁延京[1] 程贲[1] 陈英武[1] 赵青松[1] 

机构地区：[1]国防科学技术大学信息系统与管理学院,湖南长沙410073

出　　处：《系统工程与电子技术》2012年第8期1605-1612,共8页Systems Engineering and Electronics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(70901074;70971131;71001104;71031007)资助课题

摘　　要：面对不断变化的未来不确定作战环境,在有限资源和技术水平下,武器装备体系顶层设计人员需要辨识与明确对体系建设目标影响最大的能力集合。提出用带置信度的区间数度量武器装备体系能力,用beta分布描述武器装备体系能力性能指标先验分布概率,在武器装备体系能力指标分解结构基础上构建了基于贝叶斯网络的武器装备体系能力重要度评估模型,利用贝叶斯网络的推理功能提出了能力重要度计算方法。最后,以空战武器装备体系为背景对所提方法的可行性和有效性进行了检验。Facing on the continual changing of future combat conditions, the designer of weaponry system of systems （WSoS） needs to identify and recognize the capability set which is important to significant improvement in SoS effectiveness under limited resources and restricted technology. Using an interval number with confidence to measure WSoS capability and using beta distribution to picture the prior distribution of WSoS performance in- dex are proposed. A WSoS capability weightiness degree analyzing model is constructed based on Bayesian net- work theory and WSoS capability index break-down structure, and a calculating method of capability weighti- ness degree by Bayesian inference is proposed. The result indicates that the proposed model is an effective analy- sis tool for WSoS capability weightiness degree.

关 键 词：武器装备体系 重要度 能力 贝叶斯网络 BETA分布 

分 类 号：N945.2[自然科学总论—系统科学] TP182[自动化与计算机技术—控制理论与控制工程]