副热带高压及其影响因子的非平稳性检验与协整分析  

Nonstationary verification and co-integration analysis of the west Pacific subtropical high and the influence factors

作　　者：董兆俊[1,2] 张韧[2] 余丹丹 洪梅[2] 肖建民 

机构地区：[1]解放军61741部队 [2]解放军理工大学气象学院 [3]解放军91199部队气象台

出　　处：《气象科学》2012年第4期418-422,共5页Journal of the Meteorological Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41075045)

摘　　要：为分析理解副高活动与其影响因子的关系,引入计量经济学非平稳性检验的思想和方法,对副高脊线、江淮梅雨活动、青藏高压活动及印度季风活动等特征指数序列进行了单位根检验与协整分析。单位根检验的结果表明,副高脊线指数及其3个影响因子均无单位根,具有非平稳性,且都为一阶单整;协整分析结果表明,副高脊线指数与该三个影响因子之间存在协整关系。分析结果有助于深化对气象要素时间序列非平稳性的认识,进而为构建副高特征指数和影响因子之间的内在关联模型提供依据。In order to analyze the complexity of the activity of west Pacific subtropical high, this pa- per introduced the conception and method of nonstationary verification. The unit root verification and co- integration analysis were applied to analyze the ridge line of the west Pacific subtropical high and the in- fluence factors. The results of the unit root verification indicate that the ridge line of the west Pacific sub- tropical high and the influence factors have no unit root. They have the nonstationary characteristics and the time series are first order integration. The results of co-integration analysis indicate that the ridge line of the west Pacific subtropical high is co-integration between the influence factors. The research results help construct the model between the west Pacific subtropical high and the influence factors.

关 键 词：副热带高亚 单位根检验 非平稳性 协整 

分 类 号：P434.4[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]