滑坡地区长输天然气管道失效危险的多级可拓评估  

A multi-level extension evaluation on failure risk of long-distance gas pipeline in landslide area

作　　者：杜曼[1] 赵东风[2] 孟亦飞[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(华东)机电工程学院,山东东营257061 [2]中国石油大学(华东)化学工程学院,山东青岛266555

出　　处：《油气储运》2012年第8期564-568,647,共5页Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation

摘　　要：依据影响滑坡稳定性的主要因素,结合评估管道失效危险性的主要指标,建立了滑坡地区长输天然气管道失效危险的多级评估指标体系。以可拓学为核心,结合层次分析法构造多级可拓评估模型,通过多级评估,获得不同子指标各自的危险性等级以及评价对象综合危险等级。选取陕西省枣树坪地区境内的某长输天然气管道开展实例验证,得到其在滑坡灾害下的失效危险性等级为3.18,更接近于"危险",且环境地质和气象水文的危险等级较高,应急响应的危险等级最低。多级可拓评估综合考虑了各级指标的关联度和权重影响,能够更加客观地反映评价对象的危险等级。According to the main factors influencing on the landslide stability and combined with the main indexes for evaluating pipeline failure risks,this paper establishes a multi-level evaluation system for failure risks of long-distance gas pipeline in landslide area.Based on the extension theory,and combined with the analytic hierarchy process,it establishes a multi-level extension evaluation model,and obtains the risk class of different sub-indexes and provides a comprehensive risk class for evaluated objects.Taking a long-distance gas pipeline of West-to-East Gas Pipeline in Zaoshuping District,Shaanxi Province as a case,it obtains the failure risk class of the pipeline under landslide disaster is 3.18,closer to the 'Danger' class and the risk classes for environmental geology and meteorology and hydrology are high,but the emergency response risk class is the lowest.In the multi-level extension evaluation,the authors consider the influence of correlation and weight of indexes in different levels in comprehensive way,which can reflect the 'risk class' of evaluated objects in a more objective way.

关 键 词：长输天然气管道 失效 滑坡 可拓 评估 

分 类 号：X937[环境科学与工程—安全科学]