基于时间序列预测法的水利发展指标体系研究  

Study on Water Conservancy Development Planning Index System Based on Time Series Prediction

作　　者：刘佳莉[1] 王军德[1] 程玉菲[1] 

机构地区：[1]甘肃省水利科学研究院,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《人民黄河》2012年第8期74-76,共3页Yellow River

基　　金：水利部公益性行业科研专项(201101046);甘肃省创新团队建设项目(098TTCA006);甘肃省水利发展"十二五"规划专题

摘　　要：基于时间序列分析法,采用指数曲线、修正指数曲线、对数曲线和乘幂曲线分析方法进行组合比选,根据各项指标的特点,结合国家、省级及区域宏观调控的影响以及变化趋势等因素,对甘肃水利发展规划目标指标体系6大类26项指标进行了近期2015年和远期2025年的预测研究。结果表明:采用定量分析方法,可以预测甘肃省水利发展近、远期目标与任务动态区间,为甘肃省"十二五"水利发展规划提供重要参考。Considering national and regional macroeconomic regulation and control and the change trend considered, water conservancy development plan target index system including 26 indicators in 6 major types for the recent year 2015 and the future year 2025 in Gansu was predicted based on time series analysis method, which involved comparison and selection from index curve, modified index curve, logarithmic curves and power curve analysis method. The results show that water conservancy development shori-term and long-term goals and tasks in dynamic interval in Gansu can be forecasted by using quantitative analysis method, which provides important reference to the Gansu Province water resources development planning of ＂ the 12th Five-Year Plan＂.

关 键 词：时间序列法 指数曲线 对数曲线 乘幂曲线 水利发展 指标体系 甘肃省 

分 类 号：TV212[水利工程—水文学及水资源]