铁路事故致因与风险分析  

Analysis of Railway Accident Causes and Risk

作　　者：王卓[1] 刁朋娣[1] 贾利民[1] 秦勇[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学交通运输学院,轨道交通控制与安全国家重点实验室,北京100044

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2012年第6期79-85,共7页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(2011JBM249)

摘　　要：为保障铁路运输安全、预防铁路事故的发生,全面系统地分析各种铁路安全影响因素。基于美国2005年铁路事故的相关统计资料,采用灰色系统理论分析铁路事故致因,确定不同事故类型中各安全影响因素的主次关系;并以蒙特卡罗风险分析方法为基础,运用@Risk软件从人-机-环及时间的角度出发,对各因素的风险概率进行拟合。结果表明:人员-设备因素是导致事故的主要因素,针对人员-设备因素采取适当的预防措施便能有效减少铁路事故的发生。For the sake of providing a theoretical basis for improving railway safety and inducing risk, the railway safety influence factors were analyzed comprehensively and systematically. According to the related statistics of American railway accidents in 2005, the gray system theory was adopted to analyze the railway accident causes, and the primary and secondary safety factors in different types of incidents were identified. Based on the monte carlo analysis method, the fitting analysis of risk probabilities for all the influence factors was carried out by @ Risk software from the point of view man-machine-circumstance and time factors. The results show that operation accidents are mainly caused by man-machine factors.

关 键 词：铁路事故 事故致因 灰色系统理论 蒙特卡罗法 风险分析 

分 类 号：X951[环境科学与工程—安全科学]