社会保障支出对居民消费水平影响研究——以广东省为例  

Research of social security expend's influence on citizen consuming——take Guangdong province as example

作　　者：郑善乐[1] 陆浩然[1] 

机构地区：[1]暨南大学经济学院,广东广州510000

出　　处：《特区经济》2012年第8期32-34,共3页Special Zone Economy

摘　　要：本文运用计量分析方法对1990～2010年广东省居民消费、居民收入、居民储蓄和社会保障支出之间的关系进行了实证研究,结果表明广东省居民消费与收入、上期储蓄和社会保障支出存在长期稳定的均衡关系,而且,社会保障支出并没有消除消费者的后顾之忧,反而在某种程度上挤出了消费。居民不敢消费的根本原因是社会保障体系的不健全,以及受社会保障体系不健全的影响,居民对未来不确定性支出的预期较大。在此基础上,本文提出了如何促进居民消费的政策建议。This text takes an empirical study on the relationship among Guangdong Province dweller consumption,dweller income,savings and social security spending from 1990s to 2010s.The results show that Guangdong Province dweller consumption and income,the savings and social security expenditure have long-term stable equilibrium relationship and that social security expenditure does not eliminate the consumer any menace from the ＂rear＂,but squeeze consumption to some extent.The root cause is that the social security system is not sound and that the uncertainty of the future expenditures of residents expects larger.On this basis,the text put forward the policy proposal of how to promote consumption.

关 键 词：社会保障支出 居民消费 广东省 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F812.45F127