基于云模型的油气管道坡面水毁安全评价  

Safety evaluation on flood damage at slope of oil and gas pipelines based on cloud model

作　　者：郑青川[1] 姚安林[1] 关惠平[2] 蒋宏业[1] 辜冬梅[1] 

机构地区：[1]西南石油大学土建学院,成都610500 [2]成都大学城建学院,成都610106

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2012年第4期234-238,共5页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目(2006BAK02B01-11);中国石油西气东输管道公司科研项目(XQSGLO1380)

摘　　要：针对在管道坡面水毁评价过程中定性概念的随机性和模糊性共存的特性,提出了一种基于云模型的综合评价方法,用于油气管道坡面水毁安全评价。首先,建立管道坡面水毁因素集、因素评价云模型、分值集和分值评价云模型;其次将管道坡面水毁各因素基础数据输入云不确定性推理发生器,得出分值云滴;再次将分值云滴输入逆向云发生器进行推算,得到带有"危险等级"属性的分值云模型;最后综合各因素分值云模型得到管道坡面水毁综合分值云模型。该方法评价结果直观、灵活,符合实际情况。The paper intends to introduce a comprehensive safety evaluation method for evaluating flood damage that would likely bring about to the oil and gas pipelines installed on the mountain slopes based on the cloud modal. Aiming at analyzing the characteristic features of the randomness and fuzziness coexistence of the qualitative concept in the process of safety evaluation of the flood damage, we would like to come up with a comprehensive evaluation method based on the cloud model available for safety assessment of flood damage the oil and gas pipeline installed on the mountain slopes tends to be hit by. For this purpose, first of all, we have set up such an assessment system based on the cloud model theory and the corresponding set of influential factors with the point value set and point value cloud model well acknowledged. Secondly, basic data of all the factors of flood damage at the slope of oil and gas pipeline are brought into the uncertainty inference generator, with the point value drops obtained through the uncertainty inference of the cloud model. While the point value drops were put into the backward reversible cloud generator and calculated, it would be easy to get the point value cloud model with the property of ＂Hazard Grade＂. And, finally, all the point value cloud models are brought into comprehensive consideration so as to get the comprehensive evaluation results of the damage. In the evaluation process, what is expected to do is to choose four slopes to implement the needed evaluation. Taking the slope length for example, we have done detailed discussions of the significance of numerical characteristics and the principle of uncertainty inference of the cloud model. And, then, we have calculated the point value cloud models of the entire secondary factors that may influence the flood damage according to the evaluation rules of above examples. Comprehensive point value cloud models of flood damage at the slope of the four pipeline sections can then be obtained by joining the weights of t

关 键 词：安全工程 油气管道 坡面水毁 云模型 安全评价 

分 类 号：X937[环境科学与工程—安全科学]