基于模糊层次分析法的跑道偏离风险管理  

On the runway excursion hazard management based on the fuzzy hierarchical analysis

作　　者：张晓全[1] 于露[1] 曹钧[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国民航大学安全科学与工程学院,天津300300

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2012年第4期239-242,共4页Journal of Safety and Environment

摘　　要：在统计分析1995—2008年跑道偏离事故数据后,结合跑道偏离特点从机组、管制、航空器、气象条件、跑道、管理方面进行风险因素分类识别;在此基础上,为有效处理专家判断信息的模糊性,采用结合三角模糊数的模糊层次分析法进行风险评价,利用三角模糊数表征专家判断信息,构造三角模糊数判断矩阵,计算风险因素重要度排序。结果表明,影响跑道偏离的主要风险因素为:复飞政策不合理,跑道污染,机组训练不充分,缺乏稳定进近准则,管制员未能引导飞机稳定进近,机场跑道维护管理不合理,未及时复飞,机组资源管理失效。最后根据风险因素重要度排序,针对跑道偏离涉及的组织制定包括航空器运营人、机场、空中交通管制的跑道偏离风险控制措施。The paper is to present our experimental research on the runway excursion management based on the Fuzzy Hierarchical Analysis. In order to reduce the runway excursion accidents and heighten the aviation safety probability, it is of great significance to enhance such hazard management. For this purpose, we have first of all analyzed the statistic data of the runway excursion accidents in the country from 1995 to 2008. At the same time we have spent a long time studying and analyzing the characteristic features of the runway excursion incidence. In hoping to identify all the influential hazard factors that may lead to the runway excursions, we have conducted lots of studies in the following ways： the flight crew-members, the air traffic control, aircraft operation, meteorology, the runway conditions, and the management control. Afterwards we have mustered numerous hazard factors and the model of hierarchy. Based on the results of the hazard identification, we have taken a fuzzy hierarchical analytic process as the tool of hazard assessment so that the fuzzy information data of the expert assessment can be dealt with so as for each hazard factor to be quantitatively analyzed from the point of the order of importance. And then we have built up a triangular fuzzy complementary judgment matrix with the expertise evaluation in the form of triangular fuzzy numbers. On this basis we have obtained the general importance and the rank of each hazard factor. As the result of our research, we have confirmed the main hazard factors leading to such runway excursion accidents as follows： the unreasonable and illogical go-around policies, the contaminated runway, insufficient crew-member quality training, short of standardized regular operating principles, etc. Additional factors are also to be included, for instance, the air traffic commanders＇ failure to deliver clear-cut instructions or orders, un- reasonable failure to decide to go-around timely, and so on. And, finally, based on the results of hazard assessment, corresp

关 键 词：安全管理工程 跑道偏离 风险管理 模糊层次分析法 三角模糊数 

分 类 号：X928.03[环境科学与工程—安全科学]