概率联系数化的原理及其在概率推理中的应用  

The principle of a connection number in probability and its application in probabilistic reasoning

作　　者：赵森烽[1] 赵克勤[2,3] 

机构地区：[1]浙江工业大学之江学院理学系,浙江杭州310024 [2]诸暨市联系数学研究所,浙江诸暨311811 [3]浙江大学非传统安全与和平发展研究中心,浙江杭州310058

出　　处：《智能系统学报》2012年第3期200-205,共6页CAAI Transactions on Intelligent Systems

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点资助项目(08ASH006);教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目(08JZD0021-D)

摘　　要：为创建一种新的概率理论使概率推理更为客观,借助简单随机试验探讨随机性的本质,说明了事件的随机性是2个事物相互联系的一种属性.具有随机性的事件称为随机事件,随机事件A与A珔成对存在,但可以分为主事件和伴随事件,由此导出主概率和伴随概率,它们分别对应于主事件的大数概率和即或概率.用联系数表示这2个概率,该联系数称为联系概率(复概率),联系概率中的i是主事件和伴随事件相互转换的纽带,并且对产生的负概率作了解释,举例说明了联系概率在概率推理中的应用.For more objective probabilistic reasoning,a new probability theory was created in this paper.Through exploring the nature of randomness of some simple randomized trials,it can be known that the randomness of events has two interlinked attributes.The two random events A and always exist in a pair,and these random events can be divided into main events and adjoining events.Their respective probabilities are main probability（large number probability） and adjoining probability（sudden probability）.A connection number was used to describe them.The probability of the connection number was called connection probability（complex probability）.The i in the connection probability is a key parameter for the transformation of main events and adjoining events in the random experiment.The meaning of negative probability was explained,the application of connection probability in probabilistic reasoning was also illustrated in this paper.

关 键 词：概率推理 随机事件 联系数 主事件 伴随事件 联系概率(复概率) 负概率 

分 类 号：TP18[自动化与计算机技术—控制理论与控制工程]