库尔勒香梨树冬季冻害指数及其变化特征分析  

Winter Freezing Damage Index and Its Effect to Fragrant Pear Trees in Korla Area

作　　者：张仕明 吴钧 史玉辉 张克云 

机构地区：[1]新疆巴州气象局,巴州841000 [2]新疆焉耆县气象局,焉耆841300

出　　处：《中国农业气象》2012年第3期462-467,共6页Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology

基　　金：公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201006012)

摘　　要：利用库尔勒气象站1959-2011年冬季逐日气温资料,通过对冬季极端最低气温、日平均气温≤-10℃负积温以及最低气温≤-15℃日数等气象因子进行标准化处理,运用主分量分析方法计算梨树综合冻害指数,并应用线性回归、Mann-Kendall突变检验法和Morlet小波对历年综合冻害指数变化特征进行分析。结果表明,综合冻害指数能较好地反映库尔勒香梨树历年冻害情况,综合冻害指数值越大,冻害程度越严重,确定综合指数值>1.0为香梨树出现冻害的临界指标;近52a综合冻害指数没有明显的线性变化趋势,1979年左右出现了下降突变;综合冻害指数序列年代际变化以32～38a尺度的周期信号较明显,年际尺度2000年以前存在明显的准9a周期,2000年以后向短周期发展,并在近10a中后期形成3～4a副周期。研究结果对库尔勒香梨树冻害监测、预警具有重要意义。The integrate freezing damage index （IFDX） of Korla fragrant pear trees was established based on the daily temperature data at Korla weather station from 1959 to 2011, including extreme minimum temperatures in winter, minimum accumulated temperatures of average T≤ - 10℃, of daily average temperatures in winter and the days with min T≤ - 15℃, by using the principal component analysis, the IFDX feature was analyzed by using linear regression, M - K test and Morlet wavelet. The results showed that the bigger IFDX was, the more serious damage, and pear trees reached the critical index when IFDX ≥ 1.0. There was no obvious linear change in the IFDX in last 52 years, but there was a dramatically reduction around 1979. The decadal change in IFDX was clearly characterized by the periodic signal 32 to 38 years,and there was a near 9 years decadal cycle before 2000,which shortened after 2000 and changed into a 3 to 4 years sub-cycle in the resent 10 years. The results could provide direction for Korla fragrant pear tree freezing damage monitoring and warning.

关 键 词：库尔勒香梨树 综合冻害指数 冻害 

分 类 号：S661.2[农业科学—果树学]