多因素、多维度的智能电网风险评估  

Multifactorial and Multidimensional Risk Evaluation of Smart Grid

作　　者：孙强[1] 张义斌[1] 韩冬[2] 严正[2] 赵建伟[2] 

机构地区：[1]国网能源研究院,北京市西城区100052 [2]电力传输与功率变换控制教育部重点实验室(上海交通大学电气工程系),上海市闵行区200240

出　　处：《电网技术》2012年第9期51-55,共5页Power System Technology

摘　　要：在智能电网发展过程中,对其进行风险评估可以引导决策者实现科学规划,从而避免盲目投资和重大风险损失。为此根据开展智能电网风险管理的动因和效益,首先从不同层面识别出覆盖智能电网基本领域的风险因素;其次基于识别出的风险因素,考虑智能电网的时间和区域发展特性,采用多维度的风险评估矩阵法对智能电网进行风险评估;最后,通过案例分析得到智能电网风险因时间变化和区域差异特性而表现出的变化规律。During the development course of smart grid,risk assessment of it can lead the decision maker to achieve scientific plan,so that blind investment and significant risk loss may be avoided.According to the motivation to perform risk management of smart grid and the benefit that could be attained from it,firstly the risk factors that cover the basic area of smart grid are recognized in different levels;then based on the recognized risk factors and considering the time and the regional development nature of smart grid,the risk assessment of smart grid is carried out by multidimensional risk assessment matrix;finally the variation regularity of the risk of smart grid due to time variation and regional difference diversity is obtained by analysis on relevant cases.

关 键 词：智能电网 风险因素 可能性 影响后果 风险评估矩阵法 

分 类 号：TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]