影响我国台风频数与强度变化趋势预测  

Change trend forecast of frequencies and strengths of typhoons affecting China

作　　者：刘坦然[1] 刘冬雪 薛东升[3] 王炯炯[4] 

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学数学科学学院,山东青岛266100 [2]浙江省河海测绘院水文分院,浙江杭州310008 [3]海洋石油工程股份有限公司工程项目管理中心,天津300452 [4]中国海洋大学网络与信息中心,山东青岛266100

出　　处：《海洋工程》2012年第3期170-176,共7页The Ocean Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(40876094)

摘　　要：首先使用滑动平均的方法,对近58年影响我国的台风频数、强度和年极值强度进行趋势分析,又使用Spearman非参数趋势检验法进行了显著性检验。在此基础上应用基于分形理论的R/S方法对未来的台风频数、强度和年极值强度进行了趋势预测。分析表明,未来影响我国的台风频数、强度、年极值强度都是呈增加趋势的;而且年台风频数和台风强度呈正相关性。The moving average is adopted to analyse the trend of the frequencies, strengths and annual extreme strengths of typhoons af- fecting China in the past 58 years. The Spearman rank correlation is adopted to conduct significance tests. Then we forecast the future trends of frequencies, strengths and annual extreme strengths of typhoons by Rescaled Range Analysis based on fractal theory. The re- sults show that the frequencies, strengths and annual extreme strengths of typhoons affecting China will increase and become stronger. And there is a positive relation between annual frequencies and strengths of typhoons.

关 键 词：台风 滑动平均 Spearman趋势检验 R/S分析 

分 类 号：P444[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]