衡水市降水量序列变化规律分析  

Analysis on Rainfall Sequence Variation Regulation of Hengshui City

作　　者：王永亮 

机构地区：[1]河北省衡水水文水资源勘测局,河北衡水053000

出　　处：《南水北调与水利科技》2012年第A01期65-68,共4页South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology

摘　　要：利用衡水市1956年-2010年降水量资料，分析该区域降水量变化情况。采用数理统计法、PCI法对降水量的年内变化与年际变化进行分析，年内降水比较集中，季节分配不均匀，80％左右的降水量集中在夏季汛期，年际变化大，极值比为3．45。采用Mann-Kendall非秩次相关检验法、线性回归法对降水量序列进行趋势分析，降水量呈递减趋势，平均每年递减2．0mm，但没有出现明显的突变。采用距平分析和模比系数差积曲线法对降水量进行了阶段性分析，降水系列包括一个丰枯周期，大约为50年左右。采用自相关分析法对降水量系列进行随机成分分析，降水量系列的独立性强，相依性很弱。Using 1956-2010 precipitation data in Hengshui City,we analyzed the regional precipitation changes in one year and inter-annual variability by means of mathematical statistics, and concluded that rainfall in one year was more concentrated, the season was unevenly distributed, a- bout 800~ rainfall in summer flood season, inter-annual changed a lot, extreme ratio of which is 3.45. Adopting Mann-Kendall Rank non-order correlation test method and linear regression,we analyzed the trends of rainfall sequence,which showed that rainfall became a decreasing trend by 2.0 mm averagely every year, but there was no significant mutation. The phased analysis was carried out on rainfall by macro analysis model and coefficient of differential curve method： rainfall series included a low-flow cycle,which maintained about 50 years. By auto-correlation analysis,we took a random composition analysis to rainfall. It showed that the independence of rainfall series was strong with weak dependence.

关 键 词：衡水市 降水量 时空分布 变化趋势 随机成分 

分 类 号：TV213.9[水利工程—水文学及水资源]