1961—2010年中国春玉米潜在种植分布的年代际动态变化  

Decadal variations of potential cultivation distribution of spring maize in China in 1961-2010

作　　者：何奇瑾[1,2] 周广胜[1,3] 隋兴华[3] 孙敬松[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081 [2]南京信息工程大学大气物理学院,南京210044 [3]中国科学院植物研究所植被与环境变化国家重点实验室,北京100093

出　　处：《生态学杂志》2012年第9期2269-2275,共7页Chinese Journal of Ecology

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(2010CB951303);公益性行业农业)科研专项(200903003)资助

摘　　要：基于构建的中国春玉米种植分布-气候关系模型,对1961—2010年春玉米潜在种植分布年代际变化进行了分析。结果表明:春玉米潜在可种植面积呈增加趋势;气候最适宜种植面积波动式增加,近10年达5.3×105km2;适宜种植面积明显扩大,近50年增加约8.2×105km2,且呈东扩趋势;潜在种植北界呈波动式北移,最大北抬达1.4个纬度。表明,气候变化有利于中国扩大春玉米种植,但一些地区可能受水分条件的限制。Based on the established model of spring maize cultivation distributionclimate in China, this paper analyzed the decadal variations of the potential cultivation distribution of spring maize in this country in 1961-2010. There was an increasing trend in the potential cultivation distribution of spring maize in China. The optimal cultivation area presented a fluctuating increase, and reached about 5.3×105 km2 in last decade; while the suitable cultivation area expanded eastward obviously, and increased by 8.2×105 km2 in last 50 years. The northern boundary of the potential cultivation distribution shifted northward, and the maximum northward shift reached about 1.4 degrees in latitude. The results implied that climatic change helped the enlargement of spring maize cultivation in China, but the water condition in some areas of this country might limit this enlargement.

关 键 词：春玉米 种植分布 年代际变化 

分 类 号：S513[农业科学—作物学]