变电站状态检修决策模型与求解  

Decision-making Model and Solution of Condition-based Maintenance for Substation

作　　者：李明[1] 韩学山[1] 王勇[1] 郭志红[2] 刘国静[1] 

机构地区：[1]山东大学电气工程学院,山东省济南市250061 [2]山东电力研究院,山东省济南市250002

出　　处：《中国电机工程学报》2012年第25期196-202,27,共7页Proceedings of the CSEE

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51077087;51007047)~~

摘　　要：在电网状态检修概念引导下,针对设备在拓扑上仅与变电站关联的设备状态检修决策问题,在假设变电站进出线状态一定的前提下,建立变电站状态检修决策模型。在对变电站实施状态检修决策必要性阐述的基础上,提出在设备状态监测、预测基础上的设备状态转移马尔科夫过程,并基于此方程对前瞻时间内设备状态概率进行求解。进而给出变电站因设备状态检修时机而变动的检修风险和故障风险的数学表达。最后以故障风险与检修风险和的最小为目标,考虑满足状态检修的相关约束条件,构建了变电站状态检修决策模型,并基于成熟的遗传算法实现对该模型的求解。通过简单算例,阐明该研究的必要性和有效性。该研究是电网状态检修理论的深入,是实施复杂电网状态检修分解协调决策过程的重要环节之一。Under the study of condition-based maintenance for power transmission system （CBM-PTS）, the model and solution of condition-based maintenance for substation （CBM-S） was studied. The equipment involved in this paper were only associated with the substation from the view of the topology. The necessity of the research for CBM-S was discussed first, and the equipment condition in the research time was obtained by Markov process under the technique of state monitoring and forecasting. Furthermore, the quantitative expression of the failure risk and maintenance risk were provided, in which the maintenance time was the only parameter. Then, the decision-making model of CBM-S was established. The goal of the model was to minimize the sum of failure risk and maintenance risk, and the maintenance constraints were also considered in this model. The genetic algorithm was selected to solve the model. The analysis of simple example demonstrates the necessity and effectiveness of the study. This paper is the further study of the CBM-PTS, and is an important part of the decomposition and coordination of the decision-making process for CBM-PTS.

关 键 词：变电站 状态检修 故障风险 检修风险 马尔科夫过程 

分 类 号：TM71[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]