基于改进的有限马尔可夫链的桥梁性能退化预测系统  

Bridge performance degradation prediction system based on improved finite Markov chain

作　　者：卢新[1] 刘朔[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院城市环境研究所,福建厦门361021 [2]中国科学院对地观测与数字地球科学中心,北京100094

出　　处：《计算机应用研究》2012年第9期3348-3351,共4页Application Research of Computers

基　　金：国家"863"计划资助项目(2008AA12Z203)

摘　　要：桥梁是交通系统的重要组成部分,对在役桥梁的结构性能进行有效评估和预测能促进桥梁的养护工作。根据实际项目应用情况,提出了一种符合国家行业标准,有效地进行桥梁结构性能评估与退化预测的模型。该模型建立了基于病害影响因素、病害、构件、桥梁与项目的自下向上五个层次的基于优化的有限马尔可夫链的桥梁结构性能退化预测方法,通过实际检测数据说明了该模型的适用性。最后对桥梁检测中得到的所有病害种类进行统计分析,结合病理分析知识库和改进的有限马尔可夫链,发现了现有桥梁的主要病害模式和主要病害因素,并预测桥梁未来的主要病害模式和主要病害因素。Bridge is an important part of transportation system.Effective assessment and prediction of bridge structural performance can promote bridge maintenance.This paper proposed a model in line with national industry standard based on the actual project to effectively assess the structural performance of bridges.The model established a bottom-up and five-levels（that was：disease factors,disease,components,bridges,projects） evaluation method of bridge structural performance,and used an optimized finite Markov chain to predict and illustrate the applicability of the model by using actual test data.Finally,this paper did some statistics on the disease data of bridges,using the knowledge-base of pathological analysis and the improved finite Markov chain,to find the main diseases and main disease factors of a bridge and predict the main diseases and main disease factors of a bridge in the future

关 键 词：知识库 桥梁结构性能退化 有限马尔可夫链 泊松分布 

分 类 号：TP391[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]