基于经济文化强省建设目标的山东综合人口承载力预测  

Forecasting Population Carrying Capacity in Shandong Based on the Construction Goal of Economic and Cultural Powerful Province

作　　者：苟延农 张晓青[2] 李新运[3] 董俊丽 金云霞[4] 

机构地区：[1]山东省人口信息中心,山东济南250002 [2]山东师范大学人口资源与环境学院,山东济南250014 [3]山东财经大学管理科学与工程学院,山东济南250014 [4]山东省血液中心,山东济南250014

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2012年第9期129-134,共6页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：山东省软科学项目"山东经济文化强省建设与人口承载力研究"(编号:2011RKMA011)

摘　　要：作为全国第二人口大省,山东正处于全面建设小康社会、实现富民强省新跨越的关键时期。本文以广义资源供给为立论基础、人的全面发展为最终目的,构建基于经济文化强省建设目标的山东综合人口承载力框架结构和指标体系,分别预测对山东人口发展具有显著制约作用的15项要素人口承载力;接着利用专家咨询法确定指标和子系统权重,测算资源、环境、经济、社会4个子系统和综合人口承载力。结果表明,2020年山东实现全面小康社会时,预期人口将处于综合承载力之内;2050年实现基本现代化时,预期人口将超出综合承载力阈值;自然资源和生态环境始终是制约人口承载力的主要瓶颈,经济发展子系统承载力的略有盈余难以弥补资源环境承载力的不足。上述研究一方面完善省域层面综合人口承载力的理论与实证研究,另一方面为山东经济文化强省建设和人口合理调控提供重要决策咨询。As the nation＇ s second populous province, Shandong is at a critical period of development. In this period, it is building a moderately prosperous society in order to achieve a new leap and be wealthy province. Based on the theory of sustainable development, this paper builds a framework and indicators of Shandong province population carrying capacity on the basement of the goal of building economic and cultural province. And it forecasts 15 essential factors of the population carrying capacity, which have significant restricted function on the development of the population in Shandong province. Then it forecasts the capacity of the subsystems of resources, environment, economy and society, and the comprehensive population carrying capacity with the expert consultation measuring method and the index weight of the subsystem. The results of the study show that the population size will be expected to be lower than the comprehensive carrying capacity when Shandong is expected to be into the comprehensive well-off society in 2020; and the expected population will be slightly beyond comprehensive carrying capacity threshold when it will achieve the basic modernization in 2050. Natural resources and the ecological environment will be always the main bottleneck that restrict the population capacity. Carrying capacity of economic development cannot make up the overload of resources and environment. These results not only provide theoretical and empirical study on the capacity in a province, but also put forward the decision basis for the development and reasonable population regulation in Shandong province.

关 键 词：人口承载力 经济文化强省建设 山东 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]