我国水果市场价格波动规律研究  

Study on Fruit Market Price Fluctuations in China

作　　者：王川[1] 赵俊晔[1] 李辉尚[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业信息研究所/农业部农业信息服务技术重点实验室,北京100081

出　　处：《中国食物与营养》2012年第8期39-44,共6页Food and Nutrition in China

基　　金：国家"十一五"科技支撑项目"果蔬市场价格短期预测系统研究与示范"(项目编号:2009BADA9B05);中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项"中国水果市场价格波动及风险度量研究"(项目编号:2012-J-10)

摘　　要：以我国水果市场平均批发价格及富士苹果、柑橘等主要品种市场批发价格为研究对象,运用Cen-susX12季节调整法和HP滤波法将水果市场价格的波动分解为长期趋势、季节性波动、不规则波动和周期波动4部分,深入剖析了我国水果市场价格波动的内在规律。分析结果表明,我国水果市场价格波动的长期趋势均表现出上升态势;季节性波动规律非常显著,但不同品种水果价格的季节性波动特征有明显差异;除柑橘具有明显周期性波动规律外,苹果价格及水果市场平均价格的周期性波动随时间推移呈动态变化特征;水果市场价格受随机性因素干扰较强,水果市场相对脆弱,市场风险较大。Taking the wholesale market price of Fuji apples, citrus and the average wholesale market price of China＇s fruit as the research object, this paper analyzed the inherent law of China＇s fruit market price fluctuations using Census X12 and HP filter. The results showed that the long-term trend of China＇s fruit market price fluctuations had shown an upward trend. The law of seasonal fluctuations was very significant, and the difference of the seasonal fluctuations characteristics existed among the different varieties of fruit price. In addition to citrus had obvious law of cyclical fluctuations, with the passage of time the cyclical fluctuations in the average market price of China＇s fruit and the prices of Fuji apples and watermelons showed the dynamic characteristics. The results also showed that the market price of fruit was vulnerable to strong interference by stochastic factors, the fruit market was relatively weak and market risk was high.

关 键 词：水果 市场价格 波动规律 CensusX12季节调整 HP滤波 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F323.7