上海夏季用电安全风险区划及推广应用  

THE RISK REGIONALIZATION AND SPREAD-APPLICATION OF THE SUMMER ELECTRO-SAFETY IN SHANGHA

作　　者：贺芳芳[1] 杨雅薇[1] 郭林 陈艳 

机构地区：[1]上海气候中心,上海200030 [2]厦门市气象局,福建厦门361012

出　　处：《热带气象学报》2012年第4期577-584,共8页Journal of Tropical Meteorology

基　　金：中国气象局气象新技术推广项目"夏季用电安全的风险区划技术推广应用"(CMATG2010M11)资助

摘　　要：依据自然灾害风险分析的原理和上海地区各区县的电力、气象、社会经济资料,建立上海地区夏季用电安全风险评估模型,在此基础上进行上海市夏季用电安全致灾因子危险性、承灾体社会暴露性、孕灾环境敏感性、抗灾能力及综合指数风险区划,得出上海市夏季用电高风险区为中心城区,次高风险区为宝山区、闵行区、浦东新区,中等风险区为嘉定区、青浦区、松江区、南汇区,低风险区为崇明县、金山区、奉贤区。并以上海地区夏季用电安全风险评估模型为基础,在数据库、地理信息系统技术支持下,制作城市夏季用电安全风险区划软件,用此软件进行厦门市夏季用电安全风险区划,得出高风险区为思明区,中等风险区为同安区、湖里区,低风险区为海沧区、翔安区、集美区。Based on the rules of natural disaster risk analysis and eletricity, meteorological, and socio-economic data in Shanghai, an evaluation model of risk regionalization of summer electro-safety in Shanghai has been made. Based on the model, risk regionalization is conducted of hazards of disaster-causing factors and socio-exposure of disaster-bearing bodies, sensitivity of disaster-embedded environment, anti-disaster ability and integrative index for summer electro-safety in Shanghai. Based on the evaluation model and database technology as well as geographic information system（GIS）, a software of risk regionalization of summer electro-safety on city has been made and appled to the the risk regionalization of summer electro-safety in Xiamen.

关 键 词：应用气候学 风险区划 GIS自然断点法 夏季用电安全 推广应用 

分 类 号：P49[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]