基于系统动力学的中国通货膨胀形成机制研究  

Based on System Dynamics of Inflation Formation Mechanism Research

作　　者：刘超[1,2] 李培培[1] 

机构地区：[1]山东财经大学,济南250014 [2]北京大学经济学院,北京100871

出　　处：《经济问题》2012年第9期97-102,共6页On Economic Problems

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(11BJY147);教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(10YJA90110);中国博士后科学基金项目(20110490239);山东省自然科学基金项目(ZR2009HL016)

摘　　要：运用系统动力学方法和理论对我国通货膨胀的形成机制进行分析,提出通货膨胀系统是由经济发展子系统、存贷款子系统、财政收支子系统、国际收支子系统构成的复杂多重反馈系统,运用系统动力学Vensim软件,建立了通货膨胀系统的因果反馈模型,揭示了通货膨胀系统形成机制的主导因素,进而建立通货膨胀系统的结构流图和方程,对通货膨胀系统动态定量分析,通过调整相关参数进行仿真和预测,并在此基础上提出相关政策建议。The paper apply the system dynamics model of effect on our country$ inflation internal root cause analysis. Inflation system is put forward by economic development subsystem, loan subsystem, financial revenue and expenditure subsystem, and international balance of payments subsystem a complex multiple feedback system. By system dynamics Vensim software, based on inflation causal feedback system, so as to reveal the influence model is the main factor of inflation. Through the establishment of inflation system structure flow chart and equation, the inflation for dynamic system, adjust the quantitative analysis of the related parameters of the simulation and forecast, and based on this, puts forward relevant policy suggestions.

关 键 词：通货膨胀 系统动力学 物价水平 经济发展 

分 类 号：F822.5[经济管理—财政学]