基于分行业级别的钢铁需求预测研究  

Study on Needs Prediction Model in Steel Industry Based on Different Levels

作　　者：阎建明[1] 蒲刚清[1] 刘贞[1,2] 施於人[1] 

机构地区：[1]重庆理工大学工商管理学院,重庆400054 [2]清华大学能源环境经济研究室,北京100084

出　　处：《科技管理研究》2012年第18期254-258,共5页Science and Technology Management Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"可再生能源总量目标分配机制及其有效性检验"(71073095);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(10YJC630161);重庆市教委人文社会科学研究项目(12SKL09)

摘　　要：不同于其他数据分析模型,本文利用钢铁行业历史数据分析预测特定年行业产量,偏重于分析终端消费群体未来发展的用钢需求变化,获取"有效需求",通过分行业的"终端消费产生有效需求"理论,预测2015年的国内钢材需求量、国内钢材产量。以2011年的产能状况为基准,设置两种情景(产能不变情景,产能过剩情景)。并分别对产能过剩的危害和产能增加维持行业健康发展的应对策略进行分析。结果显示,产能不变情景下的行业产能利用率,产能过剩情景下产能年平均扩张速度与产能利用率。The paper differently uses the date analysis model in historical production date of industry to predict the output of particular year, by choosing the end consumer groups and corresponding demand trend to predict the ＂Effective Demand＂. Based on the theory, end consumer creates effective demand, there exist both domestic and foreign consumption demands. Designing two scenes which use steel capacity of 2011 as the base situation, the paper analysis the harm of overcapacity and the coping strategies to maintain industry healthy development. The conclusion from the research is the capacity utilization while the capacity unchanges, the annual average expanding speed and capacity utilization in overca- pacity scene. The paper can provide references for industry planners to promote the industry to develop healthly.

关 键 词：钢铁 有效需求 产能过剩 供需平衡 行业发展 

分 类 号：F426.31[经济管理—产业经济] F224