新疆玛纳斯河径流演变过程及驱动力分析  

The evaluation on runoff of Manas River and the analysis on driving-force

作　　者：高培[1] 刘明哲[2] 

机构地区：[1]新疆信息工程学校,乌鲁木齐830013 [2]中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,乌鲁木齐830011

出　　处：《干旱区资源与环境》2012年第10期47-52,共6页Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment

基　　金：中国科学院"西部之光"(RCPY200902);科技部公益行业科研专项(GYHY200806011);国家自然科学基金面上项目(41171066)资助

摘　　要：文中结合玛纳斯河肯斯瓦特(1956-2007a)、红山嘴站(1956-2004a)径流及流域内年均蒸发量、气温数据,利用Mann-Kendall非参数检验,小波分析和灰色系统理论,对其变化趋势、突变和周期进行分析。结果表明:肯斯瓦特和红山嘴径流量皆显著增加,突变分别发生在1996a和1997a;玛纳斯河径流变化与气温、蒸发量最为敏感,气温呈显著递增趋势且突变点在1989a,而蒸发量显著下降,但突变不明显;气温、蒸发量的主周期为11、22、4、7a和15、22a,而径流量为15、20和22a;红山嘴(1997-2004a)8a平均实测径流量比天然径流量增加了4.768×108m3,气候因子对红山嘴径流影响量为12.117×108m3,人类活动影响量为7.349×108m3,表明气候因子是驱动玛纳斯河红山嘴水文站以上径流量演变的主导因素。Based on the data of runoff at Kensiwate（1956-2007a） and Hongshanzui（1956-2004a） and the serial temporal annual average evaporation and temperature（1959-2007a）,we studied their trend,abrupt change and periodicity by using of Mann-Kendall nonparametric test,wavelet analysis and gray system theory.The results showed that the runoffs at Kensiwate and Hongshanzui increased obviously,of which the jump points respectively happened at 1996 and 1997;For the climatic factors,temperature and evaporation had the closest relationship with the runoff;temperature had a significant increasing trend and its jump point was at 1989 while evaporation decreased significantly without abrupt change.The primary periods of temperature and evaporation changes were 11,22,4,7a and 15,22a respectively,However,that of runoff were 15,20 and 22a.The average measured runoff（1997-2004a） at Hongshanzui was 4.768×10^8m^3 more than the natural,to which the influence quantity of climate factors was 12.117×10^8m^3 and that of human were 7.349×10^8m^3,and this indicated that climate factors were dominant to drive the evaluation of upper runoff at Hongshanzui station.

关 键 词：径流演变 小波分析 灰色系统 玛纳斯河 

分 类 号：P333.1[天文地球—水文科学]