甘肃小陇山落叶松球蚜(Adelges laricis Vall)危害面积的气象预测预报技术  

Meteorological forecast of ball aphid damage in Xiaolongshan larch forest,Gansu Province

作　　者：姚晓红[1,2] 许彦平 袁伯顺 姚延峰[3] 姚晓琳[3] 韩海辉 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局兰州干旱研究所/甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室/中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点开放实验室,兰州730020 [2]甘肃省天水农业气象试验站,天水741000 [3]甘肃省天水市气象局,天水741000 [4]甘肃省岷县气象局,岷县748400

出　　处：《干旱区资源与环境》2012年第10期108-111,共4页Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment

基　　金：科技部公益性行业(气象)科研专项"西部地区旱作农业对气候变暖的响应特征及其预警和应对技术研究"(GYHY200806021);甘肃省气象局气象科研面上项目(2011-15)资助

摘　　要：采用统计学方法,分析研究了环境气象条件对落叶松球蚜(Adelges laricis Vall)发生发展的影响,并进行落叶松球蚜危害面积的气象预测预报,对林业病虫灾害的预防工作具有显著的指导意义。研究表明:甘肃小陇山林区落叶松球蚜性喜温暖干燥的气候环境,上年初秋较高温度环境利于落叶松球蚜营养累积,有利越冬成活率的提高;仲春-初夏温暖、干燥、晴天少雨的天气气候条件,利于虫体增大和干母产卵、若虫孵化,提高蚜虫数量而导致落叶松球蚜大面积发生发展。通过落叶松球蚜危害面积气象预测预报模型历史回代检验,16年预报危害面积与实际危害面积平均绝对误差百分率3.8%,绝对误差百分率5.0%以内预报准确率81%;绝对误差百分率10.0%以内预报准确率94%。对2008、2009、2010年三年落叶松球蚜危害面积进行试报检验,3a试报面积分别为16.8km2、16.1km2、16.07km2,平均绝对误差百分率2.37%,均在5.0%以内,试报准确率达100%,预报效果极为理想,可以为林业病虫灾害的预防工作提供指导。This study analyzed the impact of the environment and meteorological conditions to the larch ball aphid（Adelges laricis Vall）s occurrence and development by using statistical method,forecasted the hazard area,which is of guiding significance on forestry pest disaster prevention work.Research shows that Xiaolongshan forest ＇s larch aphid likes warm,dry climate.The environment of early autumn last year is conducive to the ball larch aphid nutrition accumulation and survival rate of the winter.Mid-spring-early summer＇s warm,dry,sunny dry weather and climate conditions are conducive to worms increase and lay eggs,the nymphs hatch,increasing the number of aphids which led to the larch ball aphid damage occurrence and development.By historical backtracking test to the weather forecast model of larch ball aphid hazard area,it is showed that 16 year forecasts and actual hazard area Mean absolute error is of 3.8%,the absolute error less than 5.0% when the forecast accuracy rate of 81%;less than 10.0% when forecast accuracy rate of 94%.Inspection for larch aphid hazard area in 2008,2009,2010,testing area were reported 16.8km^2,16.1km^2,16.07km^2,mean absolute percentage error of 2.37%,so the trial report accuracy rate of 100%.The forecast is highly desirable to provide guidance for forestry pest disaster prevention.

关 键 词：落叶松球蚜 危害面积 预测预报 小陇山 

分 类 号：Q948.1[生物学—植物学]