油价冲击、政治制度与资源国有化决策--基于1960-2010年数据的实证分析  

Oil Price Shock and Regime Factors on Resource Nationalization:An Empirical Study Based on Statistics from 1960 to 2010

作　　者：薛庆[1] 王震[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(北京)工商管理学院 [2]中国石油大学(北京)中国能源战略研究院

出　　处：《世界经济与政治》2012年第9期93-106,159,共14页World Economics and Politics

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目《中国与全球油气资源重点区域合作研究》(项目编号:09JZD0038)的成果

摘　　要：在能源和矿产领域,全球资源国有化的趋势和浪潮进一步加强。在拉丁美洲地区,新一轮的国有化运动出现了多米诺骨牌效应。资源国有化使国际能源地缘政治较量更加激烈,也大大增加了投资方在国际油气合作过程中的获利风险,这就使得中国能源战略面临着极大的挑战。作者综合考虑了油价和资源国政治制度等因素,以1960-2010年石油行业发生国有化进程的41个资源国为样本建立面板逻辑回归模型,对资源国国有化进程内在机理机制展开实证研究。研究结果表明,油价冲击和资源国的民主化程度对国有化概率有显著影响。油价正向偏离其长期趋势的程度越高,资源国就越可能发生国有化进程;同时,政治制度的民主化程度与国有化发生概率呈显著负相关的关系,资源国民主化程度越低越可能发生国有化进程。因此,对于正处于"走出去"阶段的中国企业来说,企业在选择投资目标时要警惕在高油价冲击时期资源国发生再次国有化,并谨慎对待在民主化程度落后地区的投资,建立有效的预警和应对机制。A new round of nationalism movement has taken place like dominoes in Latin America since 2006,leading to intense geopolitical competition over access to regional resources.This paper builds up a panel logistic regression model of 41 major oil producing countries and analyzes the factors affecting the probability of nationalization in the oil and gas industry from 1996 to 2010.The result shows that higher probability of nationalization appears under conditions of higher positive oil price deviation and in countries less democratic.To be more specific,it is the oil price shock rather than the oil price itself has a positive correlation with nationalization;the regime changes sometimes increase the probability of resource nationalization.Unlike previous studies,other resource indicators like domestic resource amount and oil rents in GDP have no significant influence on the probability of nationalization.Therefore,Chinese companies should be on alert of renationalization during the oil price shock period,carefully invest in less democratic regions and countries,and establish an early warning and response mechanism.

关 键 词：资源国有化 油价冲击 民主化程度 

分 类 号：F416.22[经济管理—产业经济]