中国经济高速增长与服务业滞后并存之谜——基于部门全要素生产率的研究  

The Mystery of Coexistence of Rapid Economic Growth and Lag of Service Industry in China———Based on the Perspective of Sector TFP

作　　者：谭洪波[1,2] 郑江淮[2] 

机构地区：[1]扬州大学商学院,江苏扬州225009 [2]南京大学商学院,江苏南京210093

出　　处：《中国工业经济》2012年第9期5-17,共13页China Industrial Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目"基于自主创新能力增进的产学研合作创新研究"(批准号10zd&020);国家社会科学基金重点项目"以全球价值链引导我国经济结构转型升级"(批准号11AZD002);教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地南京大学长江三角洲经济社会发展研究中心课题"以产业集群促进长三角战略性新兴产业创业发展"(批准号10JJD790026);江苏省普通高校研究生科研创新计划项目"从路径锁定到路径依赖:全球产业分工对中国服务业发展的影响研究"(批准号CXLX11_0005)

摘　　要：发达国家和一些新兴市场国家在经济增长过程中其服务业增加值占GDP的比重和服务业劳动力占总劳动力的比重都在不断上升,而中国则不同,经济高速增长的同时服务业发展相对滞后。本文在Baumol、Oulton和Sasaki的基础上建立了一个两部门模型来解释中国这种与发达国家和其他新兴市场国家不同的发展模式并寻找其原因所在。模型证明了这种状况是由于中国服务业特别是高级生产者服务业的TFP增长率为零造成的,随后的实证分析也证实了这一点,而且与日、美、德、法相比,中国服务业TFP增长率显著低于这几个国家的服务业TFP增长率。由于服务业中的生活服务业无论在发达国家还是在发展中国家都属于真正的"滞后部门",因此,中国的服务业TFP增长率几乎为零主要是由于本应属于"进步部门"的生产者服务业对整体服务业的TFP增长贡献不足所致。本文的进一步分析认为中国生产者服务业TFP增长率对整个服务业TFP增长率贡献偏低的原因主要是制造业与生产者服务业没有大规模实现主辅分离以及中国的生产者服务业没有像制造业和印度的软件业那样融入全球化分工体系,而且国内生产者服务业市场还受到发达国家生产者服务业的排斥。所以要实现中国经济快速增长的同时产业结构得到进一步优化升级,就必须大力促进服务业尤其是作为中间投入品的高级生产者服务业的发展。In developed countries and some emerging market countries,the value-added of service share of GDP and labours in service share are rising with the economy growth, whereas the opposite is true in China. In China, with the rapid economic growth, service industry lags relatively. To explain the difference between China and developed countries and other emerging market countries, this paper construct a two-setor model based on Baumol, Oulton and Sasaki＇s work. The model proved that the reason of the lag of service industry is TFP of service industry especially advanced producer services is almost zero in China, which is verified by the later empirical analysis. Furthermore,the growth rate of TFP of Chinese service is far less than Japan, America, Germany and France.Because the consumer services is really ＂nonprogressive sector＂ not only in developed countries but also in developing countries, the fact TFP of service industry is almost zero in China is due chiefly to the lower contribution of producer service to the overall service industry, which should have been ＂progressive sector＂. Then, this paper further analyzed the reason why producer service hardly have contribution to the overall service industry, there are two primary reasons for this. First one is that producer service have not separated from manufacture massively. Second one is that Chinese producer service have not incorporated the division of labour system of the economic globalization like Chinese manufacture and Indian software industry and the home market has been crowded out by the foreign producer service. So, to transform and upgrade the industry structure and keep rapid economy growth, some measures must be taken to prompt service especially advanced producer service which serves as intermediate inputs.

关 键 词：经济增长 服务业 TFP增长率 两部门模型 

分 类 号：F124.1[经济管理—世界经济]