基于模糊预测性线性规划与改进灰色聚类分析的烟草企业最优生产方案选择方法  

The Selection Method for Tobacco Company Best Production Plan Based on Fuzzy Predictability Linear Programming Model and Improved Gray Cluster Analysis Theory

作　　者：郭宏斌[1,2] 陈建宏[1] 杨珊[1] 郑海力[3] 

机构地区：[1]中南大学资源与安全工程学院,长沙410083 [2]常德烟草机械有限责任公司,湖南常德415000 [3]化工部长沙设计研究院,长沙410116

出　　处：《科技导报》2012年第26期48-56,共9页Science & Technology Review

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(50774092);全国优秀博士学位论文作者专项(200449);湖南省博士生科研创新项目(CX2010B046)

摘　　要：烟草企业的生产方案选择需要考虑产量、利润、销售周期以及产品知名度等多种因素,是个复杂的系统化工程。考虑到烟草企业产能分配时,约束条件多为模糊约束,而约束系数又多为灰数,借鉴模糊数学与灰色系统理论的思想,构建了模糊预测性线性规划模型对烟草企业产能进行分配。利用灰色预测理论对模型中的各灰色系数进行白化,将模糊预测性线性规划模型转变为模糊线性规划模型,利用模糊最优判决条件将模糊线性规划进而转变为求最大隶属度的一般线性规划模型,求解得到烟草企业各生产方案取得最大利润时的产能分配。在此基础上,综合考虑各生产方案产品销售周期、产品知名度以及产品对人体健康的危害等因素,根据改进后的灰色聚类分析理论对各生产方案进行定性评价分析,并进行灰色决策度的计算及比较排序,从而得到烟草企业的最优生产方案。使用该方法,某烟草企业选取了最优生产方案,收到了良好的经济效益和综合效益。Tobacco company needs to consider production, profit, selling cycle, and product popularity in order to choice production program; it is a complicated systematic project. The fact when tobacco companies allocate their capacity, the constraints mostly are fuzzy and in the mean times the constraint coefficients mostly are gray numbers are taken into account, the lessons from fuzzy theory and gray theory are drawn, a fuzzy predictability linear programming model is constructed for tobacco companies＂ production capacity allocation. Grey prediction theory is used to whiten grey coefficients; fuzzy predictability linear programming model is turned into fuzzy linear programming model, fuzzy optimal decision is used to turn fuzzy linear programming model into a linear programming model that goal is maximum membership degree, achieving the capacity allocation according to the maximum economic benefit. Based on that, selling cycle, product popularity, and product hazards to human health are integrally considered, according to the improved gray cluster analysis theory; each production program is qualitatively evaluated and analyzed, and gray decision-making degree of each production program is calculated and compared, therefore the best production program for the tobacco company is obtained. Using this method, a tobacco company is able to select the optimal production program, receive both good economic and comprehensive benefits.

关 键 词：烟草企业 产能分配 模糊预测 线性规划 灰色聚类分析 灰色决策 

分 类 号：F426.8[经济管理—产业经济] F273F224